经济问题
經濟問題
경제문제
On Economic Problems
2014年
9期
59~63
,共null页
煤炭需求 影响因素 短期波动
煤炭需求 影響因素 短期波動
매탄수구 영향인소 단기파동
coal demand ; influencing factors ; short - term volatility
选取1980～2013年我国煤炭需求数据，运用HP滤波技术进行空间分解，依据“波谷-波谷”测定方法将煤炭需求波动划分为4个周期，研究提出煤炭需求总体波动呈“增长型、中幅型、中周期”特征，并从波动平均位势、波动幅度等方面研究其具体波动特征。
選取1980～2013年我國煤炭需求數據，運用HP濾波技術進行空間分解，依據“波穀-波穀”測定方法將煤炭需求波動劃分為4箇週期，研究提齣煤炭需求總體波動呈“增長型、中幅型、中週期”特徵，併從波動平均位勢、波動幅度等方麵研究其具體波動特徵。
선취1980～2013년아국매탄수구수거，운용HP려파기술진행공간분해，의거“파곡-파곡”측정방법장매탄수구파동화분위4개주기，연구제출매탄수구총체파동정“증장형、중폭형、중주기”특정，병종파동평균위세、파동폭도등방면연구기구체파동특정。
This paper choose the China ’ s coal demand data from 1980 to 2013 , using the HP filter technology for spatial decomposition and divide the fluctuations in coal demand into four periods based on “trough-trough”measurement method.We found the features of the overall fluctuations in coal demand were “growth, amplitude, and periodic”, also we analysis the specific features of the volatility fluctuations from five aspects such as the average potential fluctuations , the amplitude of fluctuation and so on .This study put forward the main factors influencing coal demand fluctuation and establishes the cointegration equation of coal demand and the ECM model .The empirical results indicate that coal demand has the long -term equilibrium relationship with the development of national economy , urbanization rate , changes of industrial structure , energy conservation and emissions reduction policy .For short term, the changes of industrial structure and emissions reduction policy are the main factors influencing the coal demand fluctuation , especially the emissions reduction policy .Finally, this research put forward some proposals according to the result of empirical study .
