CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于索洛的新古典经济增长模型，借助菲尔普斯的“黄金律水平”，研究了全球108个国家的最优储蓄率与实际储蓄率的关系，结果表明：多数国家表现出最优储蓄率围绕实际储蓄率上下波动。考虑到各国经济增长目标的差异，本文进一步提出了以经济增长预期为变量的理想最优储蓄率，得出能达到国家预期经济发展水平的储蓄率水平。最后，综合影响储蓄率的经济性、制度性、结构性因素，用主成分回归分析法分析影响储蓄率的各类因素，发现这些因素随着内外部条件的变化对储蓄率的作用发生改变。
본문기우색락적신고전경제증장모형，차조비이보사적“황금률수평”，연구료전구108개국가적최우저축솔여실제저축솔적관계，결과표명：다수국가표현출최우저축솔위요실제저축솔상하파동。고필도각국경제증장목표적차이，본문진일보제출료이경제증장예기위변량적이상최우저축솔，득출능체도국가예기경제발전수평적저축솔수평。최후，종합영향저축솔적경제성、제도성、결구성인소，용주성분회귀분석법분석영향저축솔적각류인소，발현저사인소수착내외부조건적변화대저축솔적작용발생개변。
Based on neoclassical economic growth model of Solow, this article studies the relationship between the optimal saving rate and the actual savings rate in 108 countries around the world with the help of Phelps＇s “ Golden Rule Level”. The results show that the optimal saving rate fluctuates up and down around the actual savings rate among the majority of countries. Considering the differences in national economic growth targets, this paper puts forward to the ideal optimal saving rate further which regards economic growth forecasts as the variable, and which can meet the national savings rate in the levels of economic development level. Finally, we analyze the various factors affecting the savings rate by using the principal component regression analysis, including the economic, institutional and structural factors, and find that these factors will also change as the change of internal and external conditions for the role of the saving rate.