CAJ | 학술논문

微观企业面对减排约束时的行为选择对于减排成本产生直接影响，从而导致不确定性条件下数量控制与价格控制政策实施的有效性出现差异。本文将这一机制的理论模型纳入一般均衡分析框架，构建中国多区域动态一般均衡模型，模拟分析了各省市从2007年至2020年的边际减排成本曲线，并就其对温室气体控排的碳排放权交易与碳税政策的选择进行了研究。本文发现，一方面边际减排成本曲线的斜率会随着减排行动的推进而逐渐增大，另一方面也会出现拐点并进一步上翘，且不同省市其边际减排成本曲线上翘的幅度以及出现拐点的位置均存在差异。由于在信息不完全条件下，数量政策更适用于边际减排成本较为平缓的情况，中国各省市边际减排成本曲线的动态特征说明碳排放权总量控制与交易机制更适用于现阶段中国实际；随着未来减排力度的加强，则要进一步考虑将碳税政策引入低碳政策体系中。
미관기업면대감배약속시적행위선택대우감배성본산생직접영향，종이도치불학정성조건하수량공제여개격공제정책실시적유효성출현차이。본문장저일궤제적이론모형납입일반균형분석광가，구건중국다구역동태일반균형모형，모의분석료각성시종2007년지2020년적변제감배성본곡선，병취기대온실기체공배적탄배방권교역여탄세정책적선택진행료연구。본문발현，일방면변제감배성본곡선적사솔회수착감배행동적추진이축점증대，령일방면야회출현괴점병진일보상교，차불동성시기변제감배성본곡선상교적폭도이급출현괴점적위치균존재차이。유우재신식불완전조건하，수량정책경괄용우변제감배성본교위평완적정황，중국각성시변제감배성본곡선적동태특정설명탄배방권총량공제여교역궤제경괄용우현계단중국실제；수착미래감배력도적가강，칙요진일보고필장탄세정책인입저탄정책체계중。
When facing with emission constraint, firm＇s optimal behavior will be changed and thus affect abatement cost directly. As a result, the effectiveness of quantity control policy and price control policy will be different under this situation with uncertainty. This paper introduces this micro-mechanism into the dynamic regional computable general equilibrium model of China to simulate each region＇s marginal abatement cost curve from year 2007 to 2020 and study the choice between emission trading policy and carbon tax policy. Firstly, the results show that the slopes of each region＇s MAC curve will increase gradually and MAC curves will occur kink points. Secondly, slopes on both sides of MAC curve are different and kink points will move due to tighter emission constraint. For the reason that quantity control policy is more suitable than price control policy when there exists uncertainty and the slope of MAC curve is flat, the results imply that emission trading scheme is more applicable currently in China. But when emission target becomes more stringent in the future, policy makers should also introduce carbon tax into low carbon policy system.