CAJ | 학술논문

自20世纪90年代末以来，中国经历了一段房价持续高速增长的时期。在中国家庭自有住房率超过百分之八十的背景下，长期的房价上涨必然会影响家庭内部的投资、消费和创业等一系列决策行为。本文通过构建一个职业选择模型，将房价上涨对人们的创业行为的影响分离成“财富效应”、“信贷效应”以及“替代效应”。基于该模型，本文发现房价上涨对无房人群和有房人群的创业决策存在不同的影响，并进一步探讨了家庭财产、是否有房以及住房按揭贷款对创业决策的影响。本文进而利用微观数据对理论模型推导出的各个推论进行了检验。通过对创业的关注，本文指出了中国的高房价可能影响长期经济增长的一个重要渠道。
자20세기90년대말이래，중국경력료일단방개지속고속증장적시기。재중국가정자유주방솔초과백분지팔십적배경하，장기적방개상창필연회영향가정내부적투자、소비화창업등일계렬결책행위。본문통과구건일개직업선택모형，장방개상창대인문적창업행위적영향분리성“재부효응”、“신대효응”이급“체대효응”。기우해모형，본문발현방개상창대무방인군화유방인군적창업결책존재불동적영향，병진일보탐토료가정재산、시부유방이급주방안게대관대창업결책적영향。본문진이이용미관수거대이론모형추도출적각개추론진행료검험。통과대창업적관주，본문지출료중국적고방개가능영향장기경제증장적일개중요거도。
China＇s housing price has experienced a continuous increase since late 1990s. With a house ownership ratio above 80%, the continuous price rising should have a significant effect on household investment, consumption, and entrepreneurship. This paper constructs an occupational choice model and distinguishes the effect of price on entrepreneurship into a wealth effect, a borrowing effect, and a substitution effect. Based on the model, we find that a rising housing price has different impact on people with and without house ownership. We also analyzed the impact of household wealth and mortgage loan amount. In the empirical part, we use micro-level data to test model predictions. This study highlights the negative consequences of surging housing price on entrepreneurship in developing countries.