CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用我国2000-2010年间的31个省级面板数据，通过面板向量自回归模型，从价格效应和产出效应维度对我国区域货币政策的有效性进行研究。实证结果表明：在价格效应方面，货币政策对中部通货膨胀的影响最大，西部其次，东部最弱；在产出效应方面，货币政策对东部经济增长的效应最大，中部其次，西部最弱。此外，三个区域的通货膨胀对货币政策的响应都具有1年半左右的时滞。因此，央行在制定货币政策时，不仅要根据不同区域的实际情况采取有针对性的可行措施缩小区域差异以提高统一货币政策的效力，而且要提高货币政策的前瞻性，增强调控的预见性、针对性和实效性。
본문이용아국2000-2010년간적31개성급면판수거，통과면판향량자회귀모형，종개격효응화산출효응유도대아국구역화폐정책적유효성진행연구。실증결과표명：재개격효응방면，화폐정책대중부통화팽창적영향최대，서부기차，동부최약；재산출효응방면，화폐정책대동부경제증장적효응최대，중부기차，서부최약。차외，삼개구역적통화팽창대화폐정책적향응도구유1년반좌우적시체。인차，앙행재제정화폐정책시，불부요근거불동구역적실제정황채취유침대성적가행조시축소구역차이이제고통일화폐정책적효력，이차요제고화폐정책적전첨성，증강조공적예견성、침대성화실효성。
Based on Panel VAR model , this paper studies the effectiveness of regional monetary policy from two perspec -tives-the price effect and the output effect .Empirical results indicate that , in the price effect, the middle regional mo-netary has the most obvious effect on inflation , the western region is less , and the eastern region is the least;in the out-put effect, the eastern region has the largest effect, the middle region is less, and the western is the worst.Furthermore, all regions have one and half year time lag of response of inflation to monetary policy .Therefore , The central bank should not only take action to narrow gaps between different districts when making monetary policy to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policies , but also improve the prospective of monetary policy to strengthen predictability , pertinence and effec-tiveness of macro-control.