CAJ | 학술논문

“单独二孩”政策的放开，为我们重新认识城乡居民的生育意愿提供了机会。文章对湖北省符合“单独二孩”政策家庭进行了二孩生育意愿的大样本调查，数据分析结果显示，符合“单独二孩”政策人群超过2／3在城市，农村相对较少；“单独二孩”政策家庭的平均理想子女数为1．70；明确要二孩的比重只有21．51％，农村居民二孩生育意愿略高于城市；育龄妇女年龄越大，二孩生育意愿越低；文化程度越高，城市育龄妇女的二孩生育意愿越弱，农村育龄妇女二孩生育意愿反而越强。就业迁移明显降低了农村家庭的二孩生育意愿和男孩偏好。在符合“单独二孩”政策但不打算要二孩的家庭中，50％的家庭是因为经济压力大。相对于结构性生育堆积风险，超低生育率陷阱更应该引起学术界和各级政府的重视。
“단독이해”정책적방개，위아문중신인식성향거민적생육의원제공료궤회。문장대호북성부합“단독이해”정책가정진행료이해생육의원적대양본조사，수거분석결과현시，부합“단독이해”정책인군초과2／3재성시，농촌상대교소；“단독이해”정책가정적평균이상자녀수위1．70；명학요이해적비중지유21．51％，농촌거민이해생육의원략고우성시；육령부녀년령월대，이해생육의원월저；문화정도월고，성시육령부녀적이해생육의원월약，농촌육령부녀이해생육의원반이월강。취업천이명현강저료농촌가정적이해생육의원화남해편호。재부합“단독이해”정책단불타산요이해적가정중，50％적가정시인위경제압력대。상대우결구성생육퇴적풍험，초저생육솔함정경응해인기학술계화각급정부적중시。
Adjustment of the family planning policy provides an opportunity to reexamine fertility intentions of the urban and rural families in China. A survey with a large sample size has been completed about the fertility desires of the second child of the couples in which one side has no siblings under the new two - child policy in Hubei province. Survey results show that the proportion definitely wanting a second child is 21.51%, with the proportion in the rural families being higher than that of the urban families; the fertility desire for the second child is decreasing with the increasing of women＇ s age, and is also decreasing with the increasing of women＇ s schooling for urban families while increasing for ru- ral families. A half of the families which are allowed to have a second child state they will give up the opportunity because of economic pressure. Migration reduces the desire for having the second child and weakens son preference. Relative to the strudural risk of fertility accumulation, ultra - low fertility trap should arouse more concern.