经济评论
經濟評論
경제평론
Economic Review
2014年
5期
49~59
,共null页
贸易条件 汇率制度 宏观经济波动
貿易條件 彙率製度 宏觀經濟波動
무역조건 회솔제도 굉관경제파동
Terms of Trade; Exchange Rate Regime; Macroeconomic Volatility
本文首先通过一个小型开放经济模型从理论上探究了固定汇率制度还是浮动汇率制度更有利于减小贸易条件冲击引起的宏观经济波动。然后以2005年7月为界,对中国汇率制度改革前后贸易条件对宏观经济波动影响的差异性进行实证检验。建立在VAR模型基础之上的脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析结果表明,汇改后贸易条件冲击引起的宏观经济波动比汇改前固定汇率下的更为剧烈。因此,中国在选择汇率制度调整的力度和速度上应充分考虑经济的可承受度和成本,与此同时积极寻求相关对策避免贸易条件的过度恶化。
本文首先通過一箇小型開放經濟模型從理論上探究瞭固定彙率製度還是浮動彙率製度更有利于減小貿易條件遲擊引起的宏觀經濟波動。然後以2005年7月為界,對中國彙率製度改革前後貿易條件對宏觀經濟波動影響的差異性進行實證檢驗。建立在VAR模型基礎之上的脈遲響應函數和方差分解分析結果錶明,彙改後貿易條件遲擊引起的宏觀經濟波動比彙改前固定彙率下的更為劇烈。因此,中國在選擇彙率製度調整的力度和速度上應充分攷慮經濟的可承受度和成本,與此同時積極尋求相關對策避免貿易條件的過度噁化。
본문수선통과일개소형개방경제모형종이론상탐구료고정회솔제도환시부동회솔제도경유리우감소무역조건충격인기적굉관경제파동。연후이2005년7월위계,대중국회솔제도개혁전후무역조건대굉관경제파동영향적차이성진행실증검험。건립재VAR모형기출지상적맥충향응함수화방차분해분석결과표명,회개후무역조건충격인기적굉관경제파동비회개전고정회솔하적경위극렬。인차,중국재선택회솔제도조정적력도화속도상응충분고필경제적가승수도화성본,여차동시적겁심구상관대책피면무역조건적과도악화。
A small open economy model is constructed to analyze that either fixed exchange rateregime or floating exchange rate regime is better for macroeconomic stability under the shock of terms of trade. July 2005 is the cut - off point for RMB exchange rate regime reform in China, and this paper empirically analyzes the impact of terms of trade on macroeconomic volatility before and after exchange rate regime reform. Based on VAR model, the results of impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis show that the change of terms of trade leads to higher macroeconomic volatility after the exchange rate regime reform. Therefore, the government should fully consider the tolerance and cost of the economy when chooses the speed of exchange rate regime reform. At the same time, excessive deterioration in terms of trade should be avoided by adopting related countermeasures.
