CAJ | 학술논문

产业结构调整的实质是企业行为的改变。污染减排政策可通过影响企业的行为选择驱动产业结构的自发调整。本文运用1999-2011年中国省际面板数据,借助门槛效应检验和面板门槛回归模型验证了中国污染减排政策对产业结构调整的倒逼效应以及两者之间的非线性关系。研究结果表明,污染减排政策能够作为一个有效的倒逼机制,显著驱动产业结构的调整;但污染减排政策对产业结构调整的倒逼效应并非单调递增（递减）的,当以工业废气排放强度作为门槛变量时,工业废气排放强度的逐渐降低,会对产业结构调整产生先抑制后促进的影响,两者之间符合倒“U”型关系。即较低的污染减排政策强度不利于产业结构的调整,而当污染减排政策趋紧时,其对产业结构调整的倒逼效应才逐渐显现且弹性逐渐增强。最后,根据实证结果,提出了中国污染减排政策创新的相关建议。
산업결구조정적실질시기업행위적개변。오염감배정책가통과영향기업적행위선택구동산업결구적자발조정。본문운용1999-2011년중국성제면판수거,차조문함효응검험화면판문함회귀모형험증료중국오염감배정책대산업결구조정적도핍효응이급량자지간적비선성관계。연구결과표명,오염감배정책능구작위일개유효적도핍궤제,현저구동산업결구적조정;단오염감배정책대산업결구조정적도핍효응병비단조체증（체감）적,당이공업폐기배방강도작위문함변량시,공업폐기배방강도적축점강저,회대산업결구조정산생선억제후촉진적영향,량자지간부합도“U”형관계。즉교저적오염감배정책강도불리우산업결구적조정,이당오염감배정책추긴시,기대산업결구조정적도핍효응재축점현현차탄성축점증강。최후,근거실증결과,제출료중국오염감배정책창신적상관건의。
The essence of industrial restructuring is to change the corporate behavior. Pollution abatement could affect the choice of corporate behavior, thereby drives the spontaneous adjustment of industrial structure. By using the data of China＇ s 30 provinces from 1999 to 2011, we have a threshold effects test and establish a threshold regression model to empirically analyze the reversed force effect of pollution abatement policies to the adjustment of industrial structure, as well as the non - linear relationship between them. The results show that the pollution abatement policies could play a role in the reversed force mechanism to impact the adjustment of industrial structure significantly. On the other hand, the impact on the adjustment of industrial structure from pollution abatement policies is not monotonously increasing （or decreasing ）, but appears an inverted ＂U＂ type relationship with significant double threshold characteristics when the emissions intensity of industrial waste gas has become the threshold variable. With the emissions intensity of industrial waste gas to reduce gradually, it will restrain industrial structure to be adjusted and then turn to promote industrial restructure. That is, when the pollution abatement policies are weak, it is not helpful for industrial structure adjustment; but with the pollution abatement policies to be more and more strict, the reversed force effect will finally emerge and gradually improve the industrial structure adjustment. The article also presents relevant policy recommendations based on the empirical analysis.