CAJ | 학술논문

以能源强度为状态变量，技术进步、产业结构优化为独立观测变量，构建能源强度的随机尖点突变模型，对中国省域能源强度的尖点突变模式进行了实证检验，揭示了能源强度区域差异的内在机制。结果表明，能源强度与技术进步、产业结构优化之间存在着尖点突变的动力机制；在当前，产业结构优化水平是中国能源强度区域差异的关键因素，各省域应把产业结构的优化升级作为当前降低能源强度的重要途径，而对于不同的技术进步状态，各省域进行产业结构调整优化的方式应有所不同；长期来看，提高技术进步水平是中国各省域实现能源强度稳步降低的必由之路。
이능원강도위상태변량，기술진보、산업결구우화위독립관측변량，구건능원강도적수궤첨점돌변모형，대중국성역능원강도적첨점돌변모식진행료실증검험，게시료능원강도구역차이적내재궤제。결과표명，능원강도여기술진보、산업결구우화지간존재착첨점돌변적동력궤제；재당전，산업결구우화수평시중국능원강도구역차이적관건인소，각성역응파산업결구적우화승급작위당전강저능원강도적중요도경，이대우불동적기술진보상태，각성역진행산업결구조정우화적방식응유소불동；장기래간，제고기술진보수평시중국각성역실현능원강도은보강저적필유지로。
It gives an empirical test on stochastic cusp catastrophe model of energy intensity of Chinese provincial regions, using energy intensity as state variable, technological progress and industrial structure optimization as independent observational variables, and re- veals the inner mechanism of regional difference of energy intensity. The results show that, there exists dynamic mechanism of cusp ca- tastrophe among energy intensity, technological progress and industrial structure optimization ; industrial structure optimization level is the key factor of regional difference of energy intensity at present, each province should make the industrial structure optimization and upgrading as the important way to reduce energy intensity, while for regions of different technological progress level, the way to adjust and optimize industrial structure should have some difference ; in the long term, promoting the technological progress level is the onlyway to reduce energy intensity.