CAJ | 학술논문

以1978～2008年中国省级面板数据为对象，运用两阶段GMM估计方法对中国的城市化路径进行实证分析。研究表明，中国城市化发展走的是政府偏好政策主导下的农业生产风险驱动的路径，政府的城市偏好政策对城市化有抑制作用，农业生产风险加重了城市化中的区域分割。为保证中国城市化路径合理健康发展，财政政策和金融政策应从提供农业生产补贴和农业生产性贷款转为提供农业生产保险，同时降低政府对经济的参与度。
이1978～2008년중국성급면판수거위대상，운용량계단GMM고계방법대중국적성시화로경진행실증분석。연구표명，중국성시화발전주적시정부편호정책주도하적농업생산풍험구동적로경，정부적성시편호정책대성시화유억제작용，농업생산풍험가중료성시화중적구역분할。위보증중국성시화로경합리건강발전，재정정책화금융정책응종제공농업생산보첩화농업생산성대관전위제공농업생산보험，동시강저정부대경제적삼여도。
We employ two steps GMM to estimate China＇s urbanization based on the provincial panel data during 1978～2008. The major findings are： agricultural production risk has a strong positive effect on urbanization; urban-biased economic policies have a strong negative effect on urbanization; agricultural production aggravates regional segmentation. Therefore, in order to ensure a healthy path of China＇s urbanization, future agricultural policy, especially fiscal policy and monetary policy should shift from supporting agricultural production subsidies and agricultural loans to providing agricultural production insurance, while reducing the degree of government involvement in the economy.