CAJ | 학술논문

已有的研究成果表明，在政府支出与居民消费的关系问题上不存在一个一致的结论，一个国家在某一时期的政府支出与居民消费的关系究竟如何需要进行具体分析。本文在不同理论框架下讨论政府支出结构与居民消费和社会总消费的关系，尤其注重在长期稳态增长路径上考察政府支出结构对居民消费的影响。我们发现，在不同模型框架下政府支出对居民消费的影响是不同的。我们用2007-2012年中国的省级面板数据验证了这些影响。结果发现，我国政府消费性支出与居民消费率和总消费率之间存在负向影响关系，说明了政府消费对居民消费和社会总消费有一定的挤出效应。这个结论更符合政府支出不进入生产函数的动态一般均衡理论的预测。
이유적연구성과표명，재정부지출여거민소비적관계문제상불존재일개일치적결론，일개국가재모일시기적정부지출여거민소비적관계구경여하수요진행구체분석。본문재불동이론광가하토론정부지출결구여거민소비화사회총소비적관계，우기주중재장기은태증장로경상고찰정부지출결구대거민소비적영향。아문발현，재불동모형광가하정부지출대거민소비적영향시불동적。아문용2007-2012년중국적성급면판수거험증료저사영향。결과발현，아국정부소비성지출여거민소비솔화총소비솔지간존재부향영향관계，설명료정부소비대거민소비화사회총소비유일정적제출효응。저개결론경부합정부지출불진입생산함수적동태일반균형이론적예측。
the existing research results show that there isn＇t a consistent conclusion in the relationship between government spending and private consumption. For an economy, such relationship in a certain period of time needs concrete analysis. This paper discusses the relationship between the structure of the government expenditure and private consumption and total consumption in the different theoretical frameworks, with particular emphasis on the effects of the structure of the government expenditure on household consumption in the long - term steady growth path. We found that there are different effects of government expenditure on household consumption in different framework of model. We validate these effects by quantitative analysis of provincial - level panel data in China over the 2007 -2012 period. The results show that there is a negative correlation among the rate of Chinese gov- ernment consumption and the rate of private consumption and the rate of final consumption, and that the government consumption has crowded out in a certain degree private consumption and final consumption. This conclusion is more consistent with the prediction of the dynamic general equilibrium theory that government spending is not taken into account in the production function.