CAJ | 학술논문

根据1978年至2011年的统计数据,利用格兰杰因果关系、协整分析等理论,通过对图们江区域经济增长与城镇化关系的分析发现,图们江区域城镇化与经济发展水平存在单方向的格兰杰因果关系,长期看两者正相关;短期内的经济增长主要受现期的城镇化水平、上一期的城镇化水平、上一期的经济增长水平影响.对于城镇化过程中存在的大城市病、农民工社会保障等问题,可通过推动“城乡双向一体化”;科学布局,统筹规划,提高城镇承载能力;加强城镇转移人口的社会保障等途径来加以解决.
근거1978년지2011년적통계수거,이용격란걸인과관계、협정분석등이론,통과대도문강구역경제증장여성진화관계적분석발현,도문강구역성진화여경제발전수평존재단방향적격란걸인과관계,장기간량자정상관;단기내적경제증장주요수현기적성진화수평、상일기적성진화수평、상일기적경제증장수평영향.대우성진화과정중존재적대성시병、농민공사회보장등문제,가통과추동“성향쌍향일체화”;과학포국,통주규화,제고성진승재능력;가강성진전이인구적사회보장등도경래가이해결.
Based on the statistical data from 1978 to 2011, the analysis according to Granger causality and theory of cointegration analysis herein shows that a one-way and long-term positive Granger causality exists between urbanization and the level of economic development in Tumen River Region; short-term economic growth is affected by the present level of ur- banization and the previous urbanization level and economic growth. Problems including ur- ban diseases and social security for migrant rural workers could be sovled through forward- ing ＂the two-way urban and rural integration＂, improving the urban bearing capacity and ensuring the social security for the floating population.