CAJ | 학술논문

通过建立我国棉花价差各影响因素贡献率的分解方程，对影响其价差变化的国内市场价格、国际市场价格、汇率和政策因素进行分析．结果表明：最近8年影响我国棉花价差变化的主要因素是国际棉花市场价格波动。2005年-2010年，各影响因素的完全传递效应大于不完全传递效应；2011年-2012年，主导效应由完全传递效应变为不完全传递效应．这是由临时收储政策阻碍国际棉花市场价格波动向国内棉花市场传递引起的。
통과건립아국면화개차각영향인소공헌솔적분해방정，대영향기개차변화적국내시장개격、국제시장개격、회솔화정책인소진행분석．결과표명：최근8년영향아국면화개차변화적주요인소시국제면화시장개격파동。2005년-2010년，각영향인소적완전전체효응대우불완전전체효응；2011년-2012년，주도효응유완전전체효응변위불완전전체효응．저시유림시수저정책조애국제면화시장개격파동향국내면화시장전체인기적。
Based on the decomposition method OECD used in decomposing the price gap of agricultural product, this paper analyses the impact factors on the cotton price difference from the domestic market and price, exchange rate and policy of the international market. The results reveal that the primary impact factor on the variation of domestic cotton price gap was the cotton price fluctuation from international market. From 2005 to 2010, the complete pass of each impact factor is larger than the incomplete pass. During 2011 to 2012, the dominant effects transferred into incomplete pass from complete pass, which was caused by the temporary reserve policy impeding the price fluctuation passing from international market to the domestic market.