人口与社会
人口與社會
인구여사회
Journal of Nanjing College for Population Programme Management
2014年
3期
15~19
,共null页
人口容量 经济人口容量 劳动力需求 产业结构调整 户籍制度改革 人口调控
人口容量 經濟人口容量 勞動力需求 產業結構調整 戶籍製度改革 人口調控
인구용량 경제인구용량 노동력수구 산업결구조정 호적제도개혁 인구조공
population capacity; economic population capacity; demand for labor; industrial restructuring; re-form of household registration system; regulation and control of population
通过梳理上海市历年经济发展和就业数据,利用经济增长和就业弹性之间的关系,预测未来不同时期上海市对劳动力人口的需求及经济人口容量。结果显示：未来几年上海市劳动力需求量及经济发展所能承载的人口容量均呈上升趋势,其中劳动力人口将是未来几年上海市人口的重要组成部分。据此认为,在增强经济发展对上海市人口容量承载力的同时,应以产业结构调整为突破口,完善户籍制度,引导人口有序流动,将人口管理与公共资源配置有效结合,实现人口规模与结构的有效调控。
通過梳理上海市歷年經濟髮展和就業數據,利用經濟增長和就業彈性之間的關繫,預測未來不同時期上海市對勞動力人口的需求及經濟人口容量。結果顯示：未來幾年上海市勞動力需求量及經濟髮展所能承載的人口容量均呈上升趨勢,其中勞動力人口將是未來幾年上海市人口的重要組成部分。據此認為,在增彊經濟髮展對上海市人口容量承載力的同時,應以產業結構調整為突破口,完善戶籍製度,引導人口有序流動,將人口管理與公共資源配置有效結閤,實現人口規模與結構的有效調控。
통과소리상해시력년경제발전화취업수거,이용경제증장화취업탄성지간적관계,예측미래불동시기상해시대노동력인구적수구급경제인구용량。결과현시：미래궤년상해시노동력수구량급경제발전소능승재적인구용량균정상승추세,기중노동력인구장시미래궤년상해시인구적중요조성부분。거차인위,재증강경제발전대상해시인구용량승재력적동시,응이산업결구조정위돌파구,완선호적제도,인도인구유서류동,장인구관리여공공자원배치유효결합,실현인구규모여결구적유효조공。
By examining Shanghai＇s economic development and its employment data in the past years and using the relation between economic growth and employment elasticity, the paper predicts in different future periods the city＇s demand for the labor force and its economic population capacity. The results show that： in the next few years its labor and the population capacity the economic development can bear will take an upward trend, in which the workforce will be a major part of the city＇s population. Accordingly it is believed that while enhancing the economic development to bear the city＇s population, the an effective control of population scale and structure： taking following measures should be carried out to achieve industrial restructuring as a breakthrough, improving the household registration system, guiding an orderly flow of population, and combining population management with allocation of public resources effectively.
