CAJ | 학술논문

选取山东省140个市、县为样本，利用年际集中指数，基于空间插值方法和竞争态模型对1990--2013年山东省旅游节庆进行研究。旅游节庆经历了起步期、发展期和腾飞期3个发展阶段。年内旅游节庆活动淡旺季分明，4—10月是其多发频段，秋季的数量约占总量的40％，而春夏之交的比例约为38％。年内季节性分布从“三峰三谷”型演变为“双峰双谷”型，气候因素、节庆主题的季节性、资源禀赋是其主要原因。持续时间的峰值有8个，持续一周之内的节庆数量约为55％。公共假日和带薪假期、“暑假游”、经济效益是其主要驱动因素。季节年际变化大，呈波动性下降趋势，年际集中指数由1990年的15．04下降到2013年的8．32。持续时间和数量呈现出“西低东高”特征，前者和后者分别为“两峰两谷”和“三级阶梯状”。节庆的地区差异显著，瘦狗类地区比例最高。
선취산동성140개시、현위양본，이용년제집중지수，기우공간삽치방법화경쟁태모형대1990--2013년산동성여유절경진행연구。여유절경경력료기보기、발전기화등비기3개발전계단。년내여유절경활동담왕계분명，4—10월시기다발빈단，추계적수량약점총량적40％，이춘하지교적비례약위38％。년내계절성분포종“삼봉삼곡”형연변위“쌍봉쌍곡”형，기후인소、절경주제적계절성、자원품부시기주요원인。지속시간적봉치유8개，지속일주지내적절경수량약위55％。공공가일화대신가기、“서가유”、경제효익시기주요구동인소。계절년제변화대，정파동성하강추세，년제집중지수유1990년적15．04하강도2013년적8．32。지속시간화수량정현출“서저동고”특정，전자화후자분별위“량봉량곡”화“삼급계제상”。절경적지구차이현저，수구류지구비례최고。
By annual concentration index, spatial interpolation and competition model, tourism festivals of 140 counties in Shandong Province have been researched based on data from 1990 to 2013. Tourism festivals can be divid- ed into three stages of the initial, developmental and boom stage, there is off-season and busy-season for it, it mainly happened from April to October. The ratio of it in autumn is about 40%, and the ratio of late spring and early sum- mer season is about 38%, the seasonal distribution of it starts to vary from three-peak and three-valley to two-peak and two-valley. Climate, resource endowments and the themes are mainly factors. It has eight-peak of tourism festi- vals duration, and the most quantity of less seven days account for 55%. Public holidays and paid vacation, summer holidays, economic efficiency are the primary driving factors. Seasonality of tourism festival vary largely in inter-an- nual, it shows the trend of decline, and the value of R dropped from 15.04 to 8.32. Both duration and the number of tourism festivals＇ spatial distribution presents ＂weak in west, strong in east＂, it shows two-peak and two-valley of the former, and three-step of the latter. It takes obvious regional difference, the type of dogs area has the largest .