CAJ | 학술논문

知识经济时代到来，企业之间的竞争已从价格竞争、技术竞争、专利竞争转向标准竞争。标准竞争主要机制是网络效应．竞争焦点是安装基础，表现形式是多个技术标准在市场中竞争性扩散。本文在Bass模型的基础上引入网络效应．对技术标准竞争性扩散的机制进行研究。首先在扩散方程中通过引入“网络效应增益”体现网络效应的影响，并对其作用和性质进行讨论．进而使用非线性似不相关回归对iOS和Android在移动网络操作系统市场中的竞争性扩散进行实证分析．在此基础上通过建立仿真模型进一步研究关键参数的变化对竞争性扩散趋势的影响。本文认为，技术标准的网络效应由用户数量和标准本身的技术特性共同决定。网络效应对竞争结果的影响主要通过安装基础的相对规模和网络连接效率两方面实现。这两种因素同时产生作用，会显著加快（或减缓）技术标准的市场扩散速度．模拟结果显示．最终市场格局的变化对网络连接效率参数的变化比较敏感．并可能在竞争中形成相互“胶着”的扩散局面。
지식경제시대도래，기업지간적경쟁이종개격경쟁、기술경쟁、전리경쟁전향표준경쟁。표준경쟁주요궤제시망락효응．경쟁초점시안장기출，표현형식시다개기술표준재시장중경쟁성확산。본문재Bass모형적기출상인입망락효응．대기술표준경쟁성확산적궤제진행연구。수선재확산방정중통과인입“망락효응증익”체현망락효응적영향，병대기작용화성질진행토론．진이사용비선성사불상관회귀대iOS화Android재이동망락조작계통시장중적경쟁성확산진행실증분석．재차기출상통과건립방진모형진일보연구관건삼수적변화대경쟁성확산추세적영향。본문인위，기술표준적망락효응유용호수량화표준본신적기술특성공동결정。망락효응대경쟁결과적영향주요통과안장기출적상대규모화망락련접효솔량방면실현。저량충인소동시산생작용，회현저가쾌（혹감완）기술표준적시장확산속도．모의결과현시．최종시장격국적변화대망락련접효솔삼수적변화비교민감．병가능재경쟁중형성상호“효착”적확산국면。
Following the steps of knowledge economy, competition among enterprises focuses on standards, instead of prices or technologies competition. Standards competition with network effect as the main mechanism and installed base as the key factor, commonly appears as the competitive diffusion among multiple technological standards at a certain time. This paper analyzes the competitive diffusion of technological standards based on Bass model. Firstly, it-introduced the “network effect gain”in the diffusion equation to describe the role of network effect, and then using nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression estimation to carry out the empirical analysis of iOS-Android spat in mobile operation system market. By establishing a simulation model, the paper provides a further research on the relationship between the diffusion trend and the change of key parameters. This paper holds that the role of network effect in technological standards diffusion depends on both installed base and technical characteristics, in other words, their relative numbers of adopters and their technical efficiency of connection. These two factors can take effects simultaneously and then significantly accelerate （or decelerate） the diffusion processes. Simulation results show that the changes in final market share is sensitive to the changes in technical parameters of the network, and may form a mutual ＇stalemate＇ diffusion situation in the competition.