科学技术哲学研究
科學技術哲學研究
과학기술철학연구
Science Technology and Dialectics
2014年
5期
65~70
,共null页
风险 工程风险 认知偏差 主观概率
風險 工程風險 認知偏差 主觀概率
풍험 공정풍험 인지편차 주관개솔
risk ; engineering risk ; cognitive bias ; subjective probability
风险是不确定的危险,可以表示为事件发生概率及其后果的函数。工程风险具有复杂性,因此,工程风险是多个不确定性因素发生的概率及其后果的函数。对工程风险存在认知偏差,我们通过对工程风险的认知偏差中的主观概率进行分析,从而解释在对工程风险的认知中公众对风险的认知与实际的客观风险之间存在差距;专家和公众对风险的认知存在差异;不同个体对风险的认知差异;个体对风险认知会改变;个体对风险认知最终趋同等现象。
風險是不確定的危險,可以錶示為事件髮生概率及其後果的函數。工程風險具有複雜性,因此,工程風險是多箇不確定性因素髮生的概率及其後果的函數。對工程風險存在認知偏差,我們通過對工程風險的認知偏差中的主觀概率進行分析,從而解釋在對工程風險的認知中公衆對風險的認知與實際的客觀風險之間存在差距;專傢和公衆對風險的認知存在差異;不同箇體對風險的認知差異;箇體對風險認知會改變;箇體對風險認知最終趨同等現象。
풍험시불학정적위험,가이표시위사건발생개솔급기후과적함수。공정풍험구유복잡성,인차,공정풍험시다개불학정성인소발생적개솔급기후과적함수。대공정풍험존재인지편차,아문통과대공정풍험적인지편차중적주관개솔진행분석,종이해석재대공정풍험적인지중공음대풍험적인지여실제적객관풍험지간존재차거;전가화공음대풍험적인지존재차이;불동개체대풍험적인지차이;개체대풍험인지회개변;개체대풍험인지최종추동등현상。
Risk is uncertain danger. The event can be expressed as a function of the probability of occurrence and consequences. Engineering risk is complex which is the function of several sources of uncertainty and the probability of occurrence and their consequences. We should take the holistic perspective of engineering risk. The subjective risk is not equal to the objective risk. We adopt the theory of subjective Bayes' theorem to analyze cognitive bias to show that different subjects have different opinions, for example, different experts have different opinions on a same engineering risk, expert and public opinions are different, etc. Furthermore, individual perceptions of risk will change and eventually converge. We use extended theories of subjective Bayes, Donald Gillies' intersubjective probability to explain those phenomena.