CAJ | 학술논문

根据“两型社会”的特征与内涵，构建了“两型社会”建设成效评估的指标体系．通过引入向量夹角和距离函数构建了“两型社会”建设成效评估模型，用于比较分析“两型社会”建设现状与规划目标的协调度偏差和目标值偏差，为完善“两型社会”建设成效分析提供方法支撑．基于发展成效的历史值，构建了GM（1，1）与ARMA相结合的模型对“两型社会”的发展趋势进行分析．利用模型对长沙市“两型社会”的建设现状与未来发展趋势进行了综合分析，验证了方法的有效性和科学性，并提出了有针对性的政策建议．
근거“량형사회”적특정여내함，구건료“량형사회”건설성효평고적지표체계．통과인입향량협각화거리함수구건료“량형사회”건설성효평고모형，용우비교분석“량형사회”건설현상여규화목표적협조도편차화목표치편차，위완선“량형사회”건설성효분석제공방법지탱．기우발전성효적역사치，구건료GM（1，1）여ARMA상결합적모형대“량형사회”적발전추세진행분석．이용모형대장사시“량형사회”적건설현상여미래발전추세진행료종합분석，험증료방법적유효성화과학성，병제출료유침대성적정책건의．
According to the characteristics and meaningfulness of environmental-friendly and resourceconserving society （referred to as ＂two-oriented society＂, TOS）, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of TOS. Regarding the series of indicators describing TOS performance as multi-dimension vectors, this paper takes advantage of vector angle to measure coordination degree between the vector of current status in one year and that of planning target value in 2020, and using Euclidean distance to evaluate distance between them. With the two results integrated, the performance of TOS construction can be evaluated from the perspectives of coordination （direction of the two vectors） and effectiveness （distance of the two vectors）. Moreover, this paper constructs a model by combining GM（1,1） with ARMA models to predict the development trends of TOS. Changsha, which is a testing zone of constructing TOS in China, is taken as an example to verify the validity of this model. Several practical recommendations are provided for the government to promote the development of TOS in Changsha.