CAJ | 학술논문

应急物资的采购和储备是应急管理的一项基础工作，但是由于面临不确定的需求，决策可能带来的供应不足和资源浪费风险非常大，探索提高决策质量效果的科学方法和机制，势在必行．本文将实物期权契约引入到由政府和供应商组成的非营利性供应链中，通过建立协调机制，提出了基于实物期权契约的应急物资采购模型，为政府确定合理的期权价格策略提供决策依据．通过实验仿真，对比分析了期权合约带来的政府成本和供应商收益变化，进一步分析了不同价格策略对供需双方的作用效果，以及应急条件下现货市场供应能力和突发灾害发生时间点对供应双方决策的影响．结果显示，通过参与期权合约，政府可以大幅度减小实物储备量，有效降低库存成本，供应商也可以获得更大的收益，带来整体效益增加1．43％的实际效果．
응급물자적채구화저비시응급관리적일항기출공작，단시유우면림불학정적수구，결책가능대래적공응불족화자원낭비풍험비상대，탐색제고결책질량효과적과학방법화궤제，세재필행．본문장실물기권계약인입도유정부화공응상조성적비영리성공응련중，통과건립협조궤제，제출료기우실물기권계약적응급물자채구모형，위정부학정합리적기권개격책략제공결책의거．통과실험방진，대비분석료기권합약대래적정부성본화공응상수익변화，진일보분석료불동개격책략대공수쌍방적작용효과，이급응급조건하현화시장공응능력화돌발재해발생시간점대공응쌍방결책적영향．결과현시，통과삼여기권합약，정부가이대폭도감소실물저비량，유효강저고존성본，공응상야가이획득경대적수익，대래정체효익증가1．43％적실제효과．
The reservation and procurement of emergency supplies are a very basic and important job in emergency management. But for being faced with uncertain requirement, the decisions in these areas maybe bring about big risks of insufficient supply or waste of resources. It is necessary to study scientific decision methods and mechanisms. The paper introduced the idea of option contract into the non-profit supply chain management which consists of government and a supplier, and established an option contract based emergency supplies purchasing model by the supply chain＇s coordination mechanism. The model could support the government to make better and suitable decisions in the option＇s price. Through the simulation experiments, the changes of government＇s cost and supplier＇s return were comparably analyzed, the effectiveness of different price strategies upon the supplier and buyer were reveMed, and the influences of the supplying capacity of the spot market and the emergency events occurred time on the decisions of the two sides were excavated. The results show that the government could reduce a large part of emergency supplies inventory and save its cost by taking part in the option contract, and also the enterprise could add its revenues. The total profit of the supply chain could get about 1.43% rises.