CAJ | 학술논문

以系统的理论分析为基础,利用2011年中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）的全国调查数据,采用多元回归、离散选择模型以及工具变量法等多种计量模型实证检验新农保的政策效果,研究结果表明：新农保在全国范围内显著降低了农村居民贫困发生的概率,提高了农村居民的收入水平,增强了农民的经济保障能力。进一步地,对不同年龄群体分组检验的结果表明,作为主要目标群体的农村老年人受政策影响更为显著;但是处于缴费阶段的农民并不会因为参保致贫,某种程度上甚至有减贫效果。
이계통적이론분석위기출,이용2011년중국건강여양로추종조사（CHARLS）적전국조사수거,채용다원회귀、리산선택모형이급공구변량법등다충계량모형실증검험신농보적정책효과,연구결과표명：신농보재전국범위내현저강저료농촌거민빈곤발생적개솔,제고료농촌거민적수입수평,증강료농민적경제보장능력。진일보지,대불동년령군체분조검험적결과표명,작위주요목표군체적농촌노년인수정책영향경위현저;단시처우격비계단적농민병불회인위삼보치빈,모충정도상심지유감빈효과。
Based on systematic theory, along with the investigation data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study （2011）, and measurement models of multiple regression, disperse choice pattern, and instrumental quantity method to empirically test the policy effect of new rural insurance, the study shows： new rural insurance decreases the probability of poverty in rural area, increases the income and strengthens the economic guarantee capability of the farmers nation wide. Furthermore, study of different age group shows that as the main body of the target group, senior farmers are influenced most by the policy; but as farmers who submit to the insurance, the poverty issue is reduced even in a sense.