CAJ | 학술논문

我国旅游景区内部客流管理一直以来都没有得到应有的重视。通过对颐和园景区＂五一＂小长假和＂十一＂黄金周客流持续2年的实际观测,采用基于Agent的仿真建模方法,构建了游客到达、游客移动、游客停留等景区游客基本行为模型及其仿真运行环境——基于Agent的景区游客行为仿真系统。系统的正确性验证表明,仿真系统的输出数据能够反映景区各停留点游客数量的真实情况;系统的灵敏性验证表明,入口游客数、游客在景点的停留时间以及流向景点方向的客流量3个参数能够引起仿真系统各景点游客数量的灵敏变化。所建系统能够预测景区客流的时空分布,能够通过变换仿真参数值进行各种客流调控措施的仿真实验,并给出具体调控参数以支持景区管理者的客流管理实践。
아국여유경구내부객류관리일직이래도몰유득도응유적중시。통과대이화완경구＂오일＂소장가화＂십일＂황금주객류지속2년적실제관측,채용기우Agent적방진건모방법,구건료유객도체、유객이동、유객정류등경구유객기본행위모형급기방진운행배경——기우Agent적경구유객행위방진계통。계통적정학성험증표명,방진계통적수출수거능구반영경구각정류점유객수량적진실정황;계통적령민성험증표명,입구유객수、유객재경점적정류시간이급류향경점방향적객류량3개삼수능구인기방진계통각경점유객수량적령민변화。소건계통능구예측경구객류적시공분포,능구통과변환방진삼수치진행각충객류조공조시적방진실험,병급출구체조공삼수이지지경구관리자적객류관리실천。
Visitor flow management in tourism attractions has not been given adequate attention in China. In recent years, as China＇s tourism has developed rapidly, visitor overload becomes more and more serious in key tourism sites. According to the statistical data on large scenic regions, in recent years, especially famous natural and historical tourism attractions have witnessed constant growth in terms of visitor quantity. The negative effects between the interaction of visitor behaviors and the tourism environment is becoming more serious, so are the issues regarding recreational quality and visitor safety. The scenic regions are desperate for effective solutions for the balancing problems of visitor use, protection and recreational quality. Computer simulation modeling of visitor behaviors in tourism attractions applies this technology to study how recreation use and resources inter-function and inter-infect basing on visitors＇ recreational behaviors. This will provide some information to help solve the balanced development problems between recreation use and resource protection. Wherein, agentbased simulation modeling is a good method to model visitor- centered, nonlinear, concurrency recreational systems that traditional data analysis models cannot describe. It is considered to be an important research direction in the simulation technology application in China tourism research and can adapt to the dynamism of the China recreation system. This paper proposes an agent-based simulation modeling approach to provide decision- making data for regulation of visitor flows in tourism attractions. By collecting and analyzing 2-year visitor flow data in China＇s short holidays of＂May 1st＂and＂Golden Week＂of＂October 1st＂in the Summer Palace, visitor basic behavior models of arrivals,movement and stay are proposed, including a Poisson distribution model for visitors entering tourism attractions, a Markov decision model for choice of scenic spots among tourism attractions, and an Erlang and exponential distribution model for visitor stay time in scenic spots. Based on these models,an agent- based simulation system running these models of visitor behaviors in tourism attractions is developed. The system is verified by collected visitor flow data and validated in terms of sensitivity by simulation experiments. Simulation experiments illustrate that outputs of the system can illustrate the real visitor flow of the Summer Place, and are sensitive in terms of three parameters; the number of visitors, stay time at scenic spots within the tourism attractions and the flow directions to a scenic spot.The proposed simulation system provides an approach of proactive and dynamic visitor flow management for tourism attractions. It can predict the temporal and spatial distribution of visitors at peak days of tourism attractions. It can thus support regulation and control of visitor flows while providing specific regulation parameter values of visitor stay time and the flow direction, by means of various simulation experiments with various parameters. Study on behaviors of visitors in such small geographic scale-like tourism attraction is a supplement to the larger geographic scale. It can provide practical management support for tourism attraction managers, especially in terms of visitor flow management.