CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用中国海关月度数据,从偏年度效应角度考察企业出口增长之谜。研究认为,新出口企业的低出口规模和高速增长主要源于出口统计的偏误。在上述研究基础上,文章进一步从出口年限与出口规模两个方面探究出口企业增长的动力。结论表明：新进入出口市场的企业,出口增长动力更强;出口规模与出口增长率之间呈倒U型关系,即存在企业的最优出口规模,但样本区间内98%以上的出口企业未达到这一最优规模,因此现阶段出口规模的扩大有利于企业的长期增长;企业出口的初始规模过大会抑制企业的出口增长。为了验证模型的稳健性,分别控制企业短期冲击和对企业进行聚类分析,结果均支持了文章的主要结论。
본문이용중국해관월도수거,종편년도효응각도고찰기업출구증장지미。연구인위,신출구기업적저출구규모화고속증장주요원우출구통계적편오。재상술연구기출상,문장진일보종출구년한여출구규모량개방면탐구출구기업증장적동력。결론표명：신진입출구시장적기업,출구증장동력경강;출구규모여출구증장솔지간정도U형관계,즉존재기업적최우출구규모,단양본구간내98%이상적출구기업미체도저일최우규모,인차현계단출구규모적확대유리우기업적장기증장;기업출구적초시규모과대회억제기업적출구증장。위료험증모형적은건성,분별공제기업단기충격화대기업진행취류분석,결과균지지료문장적주요결론。
In this paper, we use Chinese growth from the perspective of the partial Customs＇ monthly data to investigate the mystery of export year effects. The results show that statistical errors are the main reason for new export enterprises＇ low export scale and high growth. Based on these studies, this paper further explores the export growth momentum from two aspects -the export period and the export scale. After adjusting partial year effects, we get conclusions as follows： Firstly, new export enterprises have strong export growth momentum. Secondly, there is an inverted U -shaped relationship between export growth and export scale, namely, the optimum scale of export enterprises does exist. However, few enterprises have reached the optimal scales in our sample. Therefore, the expansion of the export will benefit the long - term growth of enterprises. Lastly, the initial large export scale of enterprises will restrain export growth. In order to verify the robustness of the model, we respectively control the short - term impact on enterprises and make a cluster analysis, which validates the main conclusions above.