CAJ | 학술논문

本文从持续性通货膨胀和普遍性通货膨胀等核心通货膨胀的基本理念出发,提出评价核心通货膨胀的关键之处在于检验一个核心通货膨胀度量方法能否有效、彻底地剔除标题通货膨胀中由暂时性冲击或部门特有冲击导致的价格变化,进而提出从基本统计性质、核心通货膨胀是标题通货膨胀的吸引子、标题通货膨胀不是核心通货膨胀的吸引子等三个角度评价核心通货膨胀。本文采用中国的居民消费价格指数及其八大分类价格指数的历史数据对十二种常用的核心通货膨胀度量进行了有效性检验,发现SVAR方法和加权中位数法是比较有效的核心通货膨胀度量方法,其原因在于这两种方法能够有效地识别哪些价格变化应该引起货币政策的反应、哪些价格变化不应该引起货币政策的反应。
본문종지속성통화팽창화보편성통화팽창등핵심통화팽창적기본이념출발,제출평개핵심통화팽창적관건지처재우검험일개핵심통화팽창도량방법능부유효、철저지척제표제통화팽창중유잠시성충격혹부문특유충격도치적개격변화,진이제출종기본통계성질、핵심통화팽창시표제통화팽창적흡인자、표제통화팽창불시핵심통화팽창적흡인자등삼개각도평개핵심통화팽창。본문채용중국적거민소비개격지수급기팔대분류개격지수적역사수거대십이충상용적핵심통화팽창도량진행료유효성검험,발현SVAR방법화가권중위수법시비교유효적핵심통화팽창도량방법,기원인재우저량충방법능구유효지식별나사개격변화응해인기화폐정책적반응、나사개격변화불응해인기화폐정책적반응。
Based on the fundamental idea of persistent inflation definition and generalized definition of core inflation, this article proposes that the key of evaluating core inflation measures is to test whether the core inflation measures can eliminate price movements induced by temporary or sector - specific shocks effectively and completely. Then we propose to evaluate core inflation measures from the following three aspects： basic statistical qualities, core inflation is an attractor of headline inflation and headline inflation is not an attractor of core inflation. We use Chinese CPI data to test the effectiveness of twelve popular measures of core inflation and find SVAR method and weighted median method are more effective because they can effectively identify which price movements monetary policy should respond to and which ones monetary policy shouldn＇t respond to.