华中农业大学学报：社会科学版
華中農業大學學報：社會科學版
화중농업대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
2014年
6期
6~16
,共null页
粮食供给 粮食需求 粮食安全 供需平衡 趋势预测
糧食供給 糧食需求 糧食安全 供需平衡 趨勢預測
양식공급 양식수구 양식안전 공수평형 추세예측
food supply; food demand; food safety; food balance; trend prediction
经济全球化背景下,世界粮食供需的扩张和收缩、国际粮食价格的波动,对于我国通过粮食贸易平衡国内粮食缺口具有重大影响。因此,非常有必要对全球中长期粮食供需趋势做出较为准确的估计。首先分析了粮食需求和粮食收益率的影响因素,发现人均收入、饮食结构、人口增速、粮食价格及生物能源的发展,决定了世界人均粮食需求的走势,而粮食收益率很大程度上受化肥密集度、土地开发程度、机械化程度和灌溉比例的影响。然后采用趋势外推和指数平滑等方法,在预测人均粮食需求和粮食收益率的基础上,基于联合国人口司中等人口增速的假设,预测了2015-2050年全球粮食供给和需求变化趋势。结果表明：未来粮食收益率期望增速降低,种植面积预期保持稳定,小麦和稻米人均需求预期稳定,玉米和大豆人均需求预期迅速上升,全球粮食供需预期基本平衡,但存在结构性失衡,稻米和大豆将出现缺口。
經濟全毬化揹景下,世界糧食供需的擴張和收縮、國際糧食價格的波動,對于我國通過糧食貿易平衡國內糧食缺口具有重大影響。因此,非常有必要對全毬中長期糧食供需趨勢做齣較為準確的估計。首先分析瞭糧食需求和糧食收益率的影響因素,髮現人均收入、飲食結構、人口增速、糧食價格及生物能源的髮展,決定瞭世界人均糧食需求的走勢,而糧食收益率很大程度上受化肥密集度、土地開髮程度、機械化程度和灌溉比例的影響。然後採用趨勢外推和指數平滑等方法,在預測人均糧食需求和糧食收益率的基礎上,基于聯閤國人口司中等人口增速的假設,預測瞭2015-2050年全毬糧食供給和需求變化趨勢。結果錶明：未來糧食收益率期望增速降低,種植麵積預期保持穩定,小麥和稻米人均需求預期穩定,玉米和大豆人均需求預期迅速上升,全毬糧食供需預期基本平衡,但存在結構性失衡,稻米和大豆將齣現缺口。
경제전구화배경하,세계양식공수적확장화수축、국제양식개격적파동,대우아국통과양식무역평형국내양식결구구유중대영향。인차,비상유필요대전구중장기양식공수추세주출교위준학적고계。수선분석료양식수구화양식수익솔적영향인소,발현인균수입、음식결구、인구증속、양식개격급생물능원적발전,결정료세계인균양식수구적주세,이양식수익솔흔대정도상수화비밀집도、토지개발정도、궤계화정도화관개비례적영향。연후채용추세외추화지수평활등방법,재예측인균양식수구화양식수익솔적기출상,기우연합국인구사중등인구증속적가설,예측료2015-2050년전구양식공급화수구변화추세。결과표명：미래양식수익솔기망증속강저,충식면적예기보지은정,소맥화도미인균수구예기은정,옥미화대두인균수구예기신속상승,전구양식공수예기기본평형,단존재결구성실형,도미화대두장출현결구。
Under economic globalization, the expansion and contraction of world＇ food supply and demand,and international grain price fluctuations, have a great influence on China to fill its domestic food gap through trade. Therefore, it is very necessary to accurately estimate the long-term global food supply and demand trends. This paper first analyzes the factors that influence the demand for food and grain yield and finds that per capita income, dietary structure, population growth, food prices and the de- velopment of bioenergy determine the future trend of the world demand for food. ; while grain yield is affected to a great extent by the fertilizer concentration, degree of land development, mechanization de gree and the influence of irrigation rate. Based on the estimation of per-capita food demand and grain yields, this paper then adopts trend extrapolation and exponential smoothing model to estimate changing tendency of food supply and demand from 2015 to 2050 in accordance with UN population division＇s hy- pothesis of moderate population growth. The result shows that grain yields growth will be lower in the future, harvested areas will be stablized, wheat and rice demand per capita will be also stablized and corn and soybean demand per capita will remarkably be increasing. In summary, the global food supply will be basically equal to demand,but structural imbalance still exists and there will be rice and soybean gap.
