CAJ | 학술논문

本文采用理论与实证结合的分析方法,通过由外及内的分析框架探讨了美国亚太自由贸易协定加剧东亚区域冲突的可能.对于非成员国而言,自由贸易协定具有贸易扭曲效应,它们据此承受经济损失、贸易方式转变,贸易扭曲与军事冲突成正比关系.美国正在协商的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定可加剧南中国海安全冲突.在自由贸易协定区内,自由贸易协定造成了成员国之间经济相互依赖,而非对称性的经济相互依赖可引起军事冲突.在美国亚太地区的自由贸易协定中,东亚诸国依赖美国市场,这在跨太平洋伙伴关系协定中尤为明显,越南、马来西亚与美国为不对称性依赖.在美国亚太自由贸易协定所导致的贸易扭曲与不对称性依赖的合力下,东亚军事冲突不可能得到抑制.这对于我们从一个更宽广的视角审视美国自由贸易协定之于东亚安全具有启示意义.
본문채용이론여실증결합적분석방법,통과유외급내적분석광가탐토료미국아태자유무역협정가극동아구역충돌적가능.대우비성원국이언,자유무역협정구유무역뉴곡효응,타문거차승수경제손실、무역방식전변,무역뉴곡여군사충돌성정비관계.미국정재협상적과태평양화반관계협정가가극남중국해안전충돌.재자유무역협정구내,자유무역협정조성료성원국지간경제상호의뢰,이비대칭성적경제상호의뢰가인기군사충돌.재미국아태지구적자유무역협정중,동아제국의뢰미국시장,저재과태평양화반관계협정중우위명현,월남、마래서아여미국위불대칭성의뢰.재미국아태자유무역협정소도치적무역뉴곡여불대칭성의뢰적합력하,동아군사충돌불가능득도억제.저대우아문종일개경관엄적시각심시미국자유무역협정지우동아안전구유계시의의.
The author provides an approach to the study of how U. S. Free Trade Agreements （FTAs） in the Asia-Pacific region influence East Asia security. The author argues that on the one hand, FTAs could induce hostilities between members and nonmembers because of FTA-induced trade distortions; on the other hand, FTAs also create hierarchical relations and asymmetrical re- lationships among member states that could exacerbate conflict due to distrust. Using these two trade distortions and trade asymmetrical relationships factors to assess the impact of U. S. Free Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific regions on East Asia security, the author finds that U. S. Free Trade Agreements are associated with a higher likelihood of conflict between members and nonmembers, and among members.