CAJ | 학술논문

“战略”起源于战争。依照“视界一火炮”之说，在视界和火炮射程之外为战略领域；依照“地图一关系”之说，模拟进行战争构思的行为是战略行为。据此，本文将面向未来的策划区分为三个阶域：规划与计划、试验与选择、意图与构思，战略问题属于第三阶域。和其他阶域不同，第三阶域的基本要素是方向、技术、位置、关系；第三阶域的核心是探索“下一周期的生存与发展问题”；第三阶域产出的结果是下一周期生存发展的“基本意图和总体构思”。有了基本意图和总体构思并不能保证一定成功，但没有基本意图和总体构思一定会失败。第三阶域思维的结果为力求成功、避免失败创造条件。
“전략”기원우전쟁。의조“시계일화포”지설，재시계화화포사정지외위전략영역；의조“지도일관계”지설，모의진행전쟁구사적행위시전략행위。거차，본문장면향미래적책화구분위삼개계역：규화여계화、시험여선택、의도여구사，전략문제속우제삼계역。화기타계역불동，제삼계역적기본요소시방향、기술、위치、관계；제삼계역적핵심시탐색“하일주기적생존여발전문제”；제삼계역산출적결과시하일주기생존발전적“기본의도화총체구사”。유료기본의도화총체구사병불능보증일정성공，단몰유기본의도화총체구사일정회실패。제삼계역사유적결과위력구성공、피면실패창조조건。
The concept of ＂strategy＂ originates from wars and its scope is still under discussion. The Chinese classic on military actions Sun Tzu＇s Art of War, written 2,500 years ago, was the first in the world to have a sys- tematic study on strategies and tactics in the wars. In the 3rd Century AD, another book titled Strategies written by Sima Biao, a Chinese historian, coined the term ＂战略＂（Zhan Lue） in Chinese （Chinese equivalent to ＂Strate- gies＂）. European generals in the 18th century did valuable research on military strategies and produced many inter- esting theories. For instance, Adam Heinrich Dietrich yon Blow, a Prussian military strategist proposed the theory of ＂Horizon-Artillery＂, which argued that strategy is a science about the military actions to be taken beyond the scope of visual field and artillery range. Antoine-Henri Jomini, a military theorist born in Switzerland, who be- lieved strategy is the art of war on the map, proposed the theory of ＂Map-Relationship＂. Putting in a broader per- spective beyond the limit of war, to my understanding, ＂Strategy＂ in the general sense can be defined as the basic intention and overall scheme for survival and development during the next period formed by the decision-makers of a collective/tribe/group with uncertainties about the future trends on the basis of predicted direction, pre-chosen techniques, preset position, and preconceived relationship in order to achieve long term benefits. Future-orientation is the essence of strategies. Strategies for the future can be formulated through three stages. The first stage is Observation and Planning; the second is Testing and Selection; and the third is Intention and Scheme Determination. Observation and planning sets out the guidelines for the actions to be taken in the scope of Visual Field and Artillery Range, but observations and plans are not strategies. Tests in Testing and Selection are beyond the scope of Visual Field and Artillery Range and thus uncertain, so tests are relevant to strategies. Inten- tion ＆ Scheme Determination is the exploration into the unknown issues which are lying outside of Visual Field and Artillery Range, so the third stage is a typical strategy-making process. Direction, techniques, position, and rela- tionship are the four basic elements to be considered in the third stage. The central focus of the third stage is to explore ＂the survival and development of the next period＂. In the third stage, some fundamental issues have to be tackled. For instance, what are the main tasks？ Why should they be done？ These questions are about Intention. If we have to complete these tasks, what measures have to be taken？ What kind of relationship is involved？ What results are expected？ These questions are about overall Scheme. With the basic intention and overall scheme determined, we have the driving force in place for future development. The function of strategy-making is to find such driving forces. Thought at the third stage should be done in the long term. Strategies with a far vision can reduce the adverse effects of shortsightedness that is driven by the anxiety for quick success. Meanwhile, far-sighted strategies are helpful to avoid autocratic rule of an iron-handed leader, and are more comprehensive because potential dangers/problems and corresponding countermeasures have been taken into consideration. Basic Intention and Overall Scheme seem to be practical and reasonable to decision-makers. However, not all of the strategies implemented have achieved satisfactory results. This is because there is always a gap between the fixed rules and the changing reality. Therefore, no matter who implements the strategies - be it a country, a union, an institution or an enterprise-successful determination of Basic Intention and Overall Scheme does not guarantee the final success. However, with no Basic Intention and Overall Scheme at hand, they are doomed to fail. This is the charm of strategy-making, and this is why the third stage is important.