中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2014年
9期
13~20
,共null页
工业碳减排 结构减排 强度减排 排放峰值
工業碳減排 結構減排 彊度減排 排放峰值
공업탄감배 결구감배 강도감배 배방봉치
industrial carbon emission reduction; structural emission reduction; intensity emission reduction; emission peak
工业是大多数国家碳排放最重要的领域,也是减排潜力最大、持续时间最长的领域.研究工业领域碳减排潜力对于理解中国碳排放峰值及参加国际气候变化谈判具有重大现实意义.本文采用经济核算的方法对2010 2050年我国工业碳减排潜力进行了估算.结果显示:在2030年工业碳排放达峰前,2010-2030年工业累积减排潜力为83.8亿t,其中,结构减排31.2亿t,强度减排52.6亿t;在2030年达峰之后,工业将继续为碳减排发挥积极贡献,2030-2050年累积减排潜力65.9亿t,其中,结构减排24.77亿t,强度减排41.15亿t.如果在这个过程中,工业内部结构和能源结构能得以进一步优化,则工业减排潜力更大,相应工业碳排放峰值将在原有预计基础上再下降8%左右,工业碳排放峰值也将提前至2025年前后出现.在估算中国工业碳减排潜力之前,考察了发达国家工业碳排放变化路径,发现工业可通过结构减排和强度减排“两个轮子”来为全国减排做出贡献,即使发达国家工业碳排放已越过峰值也是如此.文章的结论和对策建议是:①从工业碳排放达峰推断,中国不宜承诺于2030年之前实现总量达峰,并坚持绝对减排应在2035年之后;②我国工业部门持续碳减排潜力巨大,这为日后我国气候谈判增加了底气,“强度减排”主张可作为我国参加气候谈判的一个重要策略选项;3坚持市场在资源配置中的决定性作用改革取向,完善国内相关制度设计,将工业技术减排潜力充分发挥出来;④促进地区协调发展,充分发挥产业结构调整产生的减排效应,警惕由产业转移带来的产业结构逆向调整问题;⑤进一步加强国际合作,大力促进包括CCUS技术在内的工业碳减排技术的应用和发展.
工業是大多數國傢碳排放最重要的領域,也是減排潛力最大、持續時間最長的領域.研究工業領域碳減排潛力對于理解中國碳排放峰值及參加國際氣候變化談判具有重大現實意義.本文採用經濟覈算的方法對2010 2050年我國工業碳減排潛力進行瞭估算.結果顯示:在2030年工業碳排放達峰前,2010-2030年工業纍積減排潛力為83.8億t,其中,結構減排31.2億t,彊度減排52.6億t;在2030年達峰之後,工業將繼續為碳減排髮揮積極貢獻,2030-2050年纍積減排潛力65.9億t,其中,結構減排24.77億t,彊度減排41.15億t.如果在這箇過程中,工業內部結構和能源結構能得以進一步優化,則工業減排潛力更大,相應工業碳排放峰值將在原有預計基礎上再下降8%左右,工業碳排放峰值也將提前至2025年前後齣現.在估算中國工業碳減排潛力之前,攷察瞭髮達國傢工業碳排放變化路徑,髮現工業可通過結構減排和彊度減排“兩箇輪子”來為全國減排做齣貢獻,即使髮達國傢工業碳排放已越過峰值也是如此.文章的結論和對策建議是:①從工業碳排放達峰推斷,中國不宜承諾于2030年之前實現總量達峰,併堅持絕對減排應在2035年之後;②我國工業部門持續碳減排潛力巨大,這為日後我國氣候談判增加瞭底氣,“彊度減排”主張可作為我國參加氣候談判的一箇重要策略選項;3堅持市場在資源配置中的決定性作用改革取嚮,完善國內相關製度設計,將工業技術減排潛力充分髮揮齣來;④促進地區協調髮展,充分髮揮產業結構調整產生的減排效應,警惕由產業轉移帶來的產業結構逆嚮調整問題;⑤進一步加彊國際閤作,大力促進包括CCUS技術在內的工業碳減排技術的應用和髮展.
공업시대다수국가탄배방최중요적영역,야시감배잠력최대、지속시간최장적영역.연구공업영역탄감배잠력대우리해중국탄배방봉치급삼가국제기후변화담판구유중대현실의의.본문채용경제핵산적방법대2010 2050년아국공업탄감배잠력진행료고산.결과현시:재2030년공업탄배방체봉전,2010-2030년공업루적감배잠력위83.8억t,기중,결구감배31.2억t,강도감배52.6억t;재2030년체봉지후,공업장계속위탄감배발휘적겁공헌,2030-2050년루적감배잠력65.9억t,기중,결구감배24.77억t,강도감배41.15억t.여과재저개과정중,공업내부결구화능원결구능득이진일보우화,칙공업감배잠력경대,상응공업탄배방봉치장재원유예계기출상재하강8%좌우,공업탄배방봉치야장제전지2025년전후출현.재고산중국공업탄감배잠력지전,고찰료발체국가공업탄배방변화로경,발현공업가통과결구감배화강도감배“량개륜자”래위전국감배주출공헌,즉사발체국가공업탄배방이월과봉치야시여차.문장적결론화대책건의시:①종공업탄배방체봉추단,중국불의승낙우2030년지전실현총량체봉,병견지절대감배응재2035년지후;②아국공업부문지속탄감배잠력거대,저위일후아국기후담판증가료저기,“강도감배”주장가작위아국삼가기후담판적일개중요책략선항;3견지시장재자원배치중적결정성작용개혁취향,완선국내상관제도설계,장공업기술감배잠력충분발휘출래;④촉진지구협조발전,충분발휘산업결구조정산생적감배효응,경척유산업전이대래적산업결구역향조정문제;⑤진일보가강국제합작,대력촉진포괄CCUS기술재내적공업탄감배기술적응용화발전.
Industry is the most important carbon emission field in the most countries, and it is also the field of the greatest reduction potential and can last a very long time for emission reduction. Studying on industrial carbon emission reduction potential has a great significance for understanding China' s emissions peak and participating in international climate change negotiations. This paper estimates 2010 -2050 China' s industrial carbon reduction potential by economic accounting method. The estimation outcomes are: the cumulative industrial emission reduction potential is 8.38 billion t before the year 2030 in which industrial carbon emission reaches the peak ,including 3. 12 billion t structural emission reduction and 5.26 billion t intensity emission reduction. Industry will continue to play a positive contribution for carbon reduction after 2030, and the cumulative emission reduction potential is 6. 59 billion t during 2030 - 2050,including 2.477 billion t structural emission reduction and 4.115 billion t intensily emission reduction. In fact, industry has greater potential to reduce emissions if the internal industrial structure and the energy structure can be optimizated at the same time, and the corresponding industrial carbon emission peak is expected to appear around 2025, and the peak value is expected to decline 8% than the original estimated value. Before estimating China' s industrial carbon reduction potential, the paper analyzed the industrial carbon emissions changed paths in developed countries, and found that industrial carbon emission reduction can contribute the whole national emission reduction by "two wheels", structural emission reduction and intensity emission reduction, even if developed countries have crossed the industrial emission peak as well. The conclusions and suggestions are: ①Inferred from the industrial carbon emission peak, China should not be committed to reach carbon emission peak before 2030, and insist on absolute reduction after 2035. ②China' s industrial sector has great carbon emission potentials,which backbone our climate negotiations in the future, and ' intensity emission reduction' can be put forward as an important policy option in the climate negotiations. ③Insist on the market-oriented refiorm that market plays a decisive role in the allocation of resources, and improve the relevant domestic institutional design to realize the technology emission reduction potentials. ④Promote regional coordination development, make structural emission reduction play greater important role,and keep a wary eye on the problem of the reverse structure adjustment by the industrial regional transfer. ⑤Further strengthen the international cooperation, and vigorously promote industrial carbon emission technologies application and development, including the CCUS technology application and development.