CAJ | 학술논문

产业、人口和土地非农化是城市化的基本内涵与表现,其协调性关系到城市化的可持续发展.运用协调耦合度模型和重心法分析1999年至2011年浙江省城市化过程中产业、人口与土地非农化的协调性与空间均衡性,通过皮尔逊相关性检验协调耦合度的影响因素,结果表明：①研究期全省产业、人口与土地非农化的协调耦合度得到持续提高,由0.54上升至0.76,从中协调耦合等级发展为较协调耦合等级,各市协调耦合度及其等级都获得相应提高,但“北高南低,南北分化”的空间差异特征依然显著;②以2005年为界,前半期全省及省内各市协调耦合度增速较快,但2005年之后显著放缓,说明促进各要素协调非农化的难度在上升;③地区不平衡未得到有效控制,西北部人口非农化速度领先、东北部产业非农化较快、中南部土地非农化超前,阻碍了综合协调耦合度的提高;④经济发展、城乡居民收入与公共服务水平,就业结构和土地资源禀赋等是影响产业、人口与土地协调非农化的重要因素.今后产业、人口和土地非农化协调性的提高将依赖于各要素非农化相互作用和地区平衡性的改善.东北部地区需着重推进产业升级和城乡一体化建设;西北部地区提高失业、住房等社会保障覆盖面,促进进城农民工市民化;中南部巩固农业的同时积极发展二三产业,增加非农就业,改善公共服务,同时优化土地利用管理,控制城市低效蔓延.
산업、인구화토지비농화시성시화적기본내함여표현,기협조성관계도성시화적가지속발전.운용협조우합도모형화중심법분석1999년지2011년절강성성시화과정중산업、인구여토지비농화적협조성여공간균형성,통과피이손상관성검험협조우합도적영향인소,결과표명：①연구기전성산업、인구여토지비농화적협조우합도득도지속제고,유0.54상승지0.76,종중협조우합등급발전위교협조우합등급,각시협조우합도급기등급도획득상응제고,단“북고남저,남북분화”적공간차이특정의연현저;②이2005년위계,전반기전성급성내각시협조우합도증속교쾌,단2005년지후현저방완,설명촉진각요소협조비농화적난도재상승;③지구불평형미득도유효공제,서북부인구비농화속도령선、동북부산업비농화교쾌、중남부토지비농화초전,조애료종합협조우합도적제고;④경제발전、성향거민수입여공공복무수평,취업결구화토지자원품부등시영향산업、인구여토지협조비농화적중요인소.금후산업、인구화토지비농화협조성적제고장의뢰우각요소비농화상호작용화지구평형성적개선.동북부지구수착중추진산업승급화성향일체화건설;서북부지구제고실업、주방등사회보장복개면,촉진진성농민공시민화;중남부공고농업적동시적겁발전이삼산업,증가비농취업,개선공공복무,동시우화토지이용관리,공제성시저효만연.
Deagricuhuralization of industry, population and land use is the major connotation and outward manifestation of urbanization. And whether the non-agricultural process of the three key elements is well coordinated is Vitally important to the sustainability of urbanization. This paper quantitatively evaluated the coordinated coupling degree and special non-agricultural balance of the industry, population and land use in Zhejiang Province from 1999 to 2011 by using coordinated coupling model and centroid method, and analyzed the affecting factors through Pearson correlation test. The results indicate that： ①the coordinated coupling degree （CCD） of industry, population and land use deagriculturalization had achieved continuous improvement in Zhcjiang which increased from 0.54 to 0.75 and entered a higher level, while an obvious gap existed between north Zhejiang and the south presenting a feature of ＂high north and low south＂. ② After 2005, the improving velocity of CCD had slowed down sharply, implicating the increasing difficulty of promoting the coordination of the three elements during non-agricuhural process. ③ Regional imbalance hadn＇ t been effectively controlled. Specifically, northwestern Zhejiang is the fastest in population urbanization, and the northeast is the fastest area in industry deagriculturalization, while land use conversion in middle and southern Zhejiang is apparently in advance. The resisting spatial mismatch was playing a negative role in harmonious urbanization. ④The levels of economy, resident income and public services, employment structure and land resource endowment arc significant correlative factors to CCD. The further promotion of CCD relies on ameliorating the interactions among the elements of urbanization and the spatial balance. Specifically, the northeastern Zhejiang needs to focus on industrial updating and urban-rural integration, while northwest on the social security coverage and citizenization of migrant workers. For the middle and southern regions, apart from developing agriculture, more attention should be paid to expand secondary and tertiary industries, raise the standard of public services to absorb rural surplus labors, Optimize land use administration for urban sprawl control.