中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2014年
9期
141~146
,共null页
区域经济发展战略 经济波动 平稳化 动态随机一般均衡
區域經濟髮展戰略 經濟波動 平穩化 動態隨機一般均衡
구역경제발전전략 경제파동 평은화 동태수궤일반균형
regional economic development strategy; economic fluctuations; stabilizing trend; DSGE model
本文将生产部门分为东部厂商和中西部厂商这两类异质性厂商,并引入“区域经济政策变迁”冲击对动态随机一般均衡模型进行扩展,分析了改革开放以来中国区域经济发展战略转变与经济波动特征性变化之间的关系及其影响机制问题.主要结论如下:两阶段、分区域的动态随机一般均衡模型较好地反映了新世纪以来中国经济波动平稳化的新特征;中西部地区主要宏观经济变量波动的标准差一直偏低并且在区域经济“协调发展”阶段出现显著变小,降低了中国整体经济波动的幅度;新世纪以来区域经济从“非均衡发展”到“协调发展”的战略性转变,使得中国宏观经济从严重依赖东部地区的“单轮驱动”转向增长极日趋多元化的“多轮驱动”并由此导致投资行为及其效率的相对变化,是宏观经济波动出现平稳化趋势的深层次原因;金融危机后中国宏观经济平稳增长的态势整体上得以持续,很大程度上得益于经济重心西移和区域经济“协调发展”的背景下中西部地区经济波动对全国经济波动的缓和化作用 因此,深入推进区域经济协调发展战略,对增强中国宏观经济的稳定性具有重要意义.
本文將生產部門分為東部廠商和中西部廠商這兩類異質性廠商,併引入“區域經濟政策變遷”遲擊對動態隨機一般均衡模型進行擴展,分析瞭改革開放以來中國區域經濟髮展戰略轉變與經濟波動特徵性變化之間的關繫及其影響機製問題.主要結論如下:兩階段、分區域的動態隨機一般均衡模型較好地反映瞭新世紀以來中國經濟波動平穩化的新特徵;中西部地區主要宏觀經濟變量波動的標準差一直偏低併且在區域經濟“協調髮展”階段齣現顯著變小,降低瞭中國整體經濟波動的幅度;新世紀以來區域經濟從“非均衡髮展”到“協調髮展”的戰略性轉變,使得中國宏觀經濟從嚴重依賴東部地區的“單輪驅動”轉嚮增長極日趨多元化的“多輪驅動”併由此導緻投資行為及其效率的相對變化,是宏觀經濟波動齣現平穩化趨勢的深層次原因;金融危機後中國宏觀經濟平穩增長的態勢整體上得以持續,很大程度上得益于經濟重心西移和區域經濟“協調髮展”的揹景下中西部地區經濟波動對全國經濟波動的緩和化作用 因此,深入推進區域經濟協調髮展戰略,對增彊中國宏觀經濟的穩定性具有重要意義.
본문장생산부문분위동부엄상화중서부엄상저량류이질성엄상,병인입“구역경제정책변천”충격대동태수궤일반균형모형진행확전,분석료개혁개방이래중국구역경제발전전략전변여경제파동특정성변화지간적관계급기영향궤제문제.주요결론여하:량계단、분구역적동태수궤일반균형모형교호지반영료신세기이래중국경제파동평은화적신특정;중서부지구주요굉관경제변량파동적표준차일직편저병차재구역경제“협조발전”계단출현현저변소,강저료중국정체경제파동적폭도;신세기이래구역경제종“비균형발전”도“협조발전”적전략성전변,사득중국굉관경제종엄중의뢰동부지구적“단륜구동”전향증장겁일추다원화적“다륜구동”병유차도치투자행위급기효솔적상대변화,시굉관경제파동출현평은화추세적심층차원인;금융위궤후중국굉관경제평은증장적태세정체상득이지속,흔대정도상득익우경제중심서이화구역경제“협조발전”적배경하중서부지구경제파동대전국경제파동적완화화작용 인차,심입추진구역경제협조발전전략,대증강중국굉관경제적은정성구유중요의의.
By considering the heterogeneity between the eastern region and the central and western regions of China, this paper establishes a two-stage sub-regional DSGE model, which consists of the variable of regional economic policy change. The results as follows : the simulation of the model is successful in capturing the new features of the stabilizing trend of economic fluctuations in China since the beginning of the new century, and the declining of the shocks' standard deviations of regional economy of the central and western regions has systematically reduced China' s economic fluctuations, and the shift of regional economic development strategy from ' non-balanced development' to ' coordinated development' accompanied by the changing of investment behavior and its efficiency that has convened China's previous single-pole economy to the current multi-pole one is also a deeper cause. After the international financial crisis, China's macro economy has maintained stable trend on the whole, largely due to the moderating of the central and western regional economy. Therefore, further promoting the strategy of regional economy coordinated development will play an important role in the stability of China's economy.