CAJ | 학술논문

利用中介效应检验及面板平滑机制转移模型等计量工具,以G20成员国1992—2012年经济金融年度数据建立模型,对货币政策控制变量狭义货币的产出、价格效应及其传导机制非线性转移做实证分析,结果显示：货币数量的价格调节效应显著而对产出影响不敏感,货币数量调控通过利率、汇率及信贷等传导渠道发生作用,随着各渠道变量发生变化货币控制效应发生非线性机制转移。以八国集团及十一个重要新兴工业化国家为样本分别建模,发现三种渠道变量作用大小有明显差异,这种异质性由发达国家与发展中国家利率市场化水平、金融市场健全程度、对外开放及国际资本流动水平差异等综合因素所决定。实证结论表明,货币数量的产出效果长期趋于中性,对中国的启示是慎用货币数量型调控影响经济增长。
이용중개효응검험급면판평활궤제전이모형등계량공구,이G20성원국1992—2012년경제금융년도수거건립모형,대화폐정책공제변량협의화폐적산출、개격효응급기전도궤제비선성전이주실증분석,결과현시：화폐수량적개격조절효응현저이대산출영향불민감,화폐수량조공통과리솔、회솔급신대등전도거도발생작용,수착각거도변량발생변화화폐공제효응발생비선성궤제전이。이팔국집단급십일개중요신흥공업화국가위양본분별건모,발현삼충거도변량작용대소유명현차이,저충이질성유발체국가여발전중국가리솔시장화수평、금융시장건전정도、대외개방급국제자본류동수평차이등종합인소소결정。실증결론표명,화폐수량적산출효과장기추우중성,대중국적계시시신용화폐수량형조공영향경제증장。
Modeling the 1992-2012 annual economic and financial data of the G20 country by means of mediator effect testing and model of panel smooth transition,an empirical analysis was made of the nonlinear transfer of production,price effect and transmission mechanism of the micro-currency under the variation control of monetary policy. The results show that the price-adjusting effect of currency quantity was prominent but not sensitive in affecting production,that the control of currency quantity made effect by the mediating means,such as interests,exchange rates and loan,and that with changes in variations of different means,nonlinear transfer occurred to the effect of monetary control. Modeling respectively the Group of Eight and the eleven major emerging industrialized countries finds that the size of variations of the three means differs clearly. This heterogeneity is determined by comprehensive elements,including differences in level of interests marketization,degree of improvement of banking market,degree of opening door to the outer world and level of international capital fluid between developed and developing countries. A demonstrated conclusion indicates that the effect of production of currency quantity remains neutral in the long run and that China should be cautious in regulating and controlling economic growth by the size of monetary quantity.