CAJ | 학술논문

中国过去的宏观经济实践显示出政府对生产性财政支出政策的强烈偏好，在涉及基础设施等公共资本的生产性支出方面更是着意倾斜。本文将政府生产性支出纳入生产函数，构建存在不完全竞争的动态随机一般均衡模型，研究了政府生产性支出对中国经济增长和经济波动所造成的影响。研究表明：（1）利用贝叶斯估计得到的公共资本产出份额大约为10％，同时表明政府支出确实会造成生产的外部性；（2）政府生产性支出冲击是产出波动的重要影响因素，该冲击能解释约23％的总产出波动；（3）政府生产性支出冲击对居民消费和私人投资造成了短期“挤出”效应，长期“挤入”效应，另外该冲击有利于促进经济体系资本持续性积累。
중국과거적굉관경제실천현시출정부대생산성재정지출정책적강렬편호，재섭급기출설시등공공자본적생산성지출방면경시착의경사。본문장정부생산성지출납입생산함수，구건존재불완전경쟁적동태수궤일반균형모형，연구료정부생산성지출대중국경제증장화경제파동소조성적영향。연구표명：（1）이용패협사고계득도적공공자본산출빈액대약위10％，동시표명정부지출학실회조성생산적외부성；（2）정부생산성지출충격시산출파동적중요영향인소，해충격능해석약23％적총산출파동；（3）정부생산성지출충격대거민소비화사인투자조성료단기“제출”효응，장기“제입”효응，령외해충격유리우촉진경제체계자본지속성적루。
Analyzing Chinese government＇s fiscal policy in the past years, we find that the government productive spending such as in[rastrueture investment has played the key role. To investigate the relationship between government productive spending and economic fluctuations, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on the produc function including the productive government spending and incomplete competitive markets. Our paper shows that （ 1 ） output share Of public capital by Bayesian estimation is about 10% and government spending does cause produc ton the ire externalities; （2） the shock from government productive spending is an important source of output fluctuations and it can explain about 23% output fluctuations; （3）the shock from government productive spending has the crowding-out effects on private consumption and investment in short-run, however, the crowdinz-in effects dominate in lone-run.