CAJ | 학술논문

中国农村人口老龄化日趋严重，“养儿防老”的传统模式难以持续。基于最新中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）的微观数据，本文利用断点回归方法实证研究了以“新农保”为基础的农村“社会养老”模式对“家庭养老”的替代性。研究结果显示，获得新农保养老金收入的农村老年人，其获得私人转移支付的概率下降了大约32—56个百分点，然而，对于已经获得转移支付的老年人，并未发现新农保养老金收入对他们获得的私人转移支付数额存在显著影响。本文的研究结论表明，“社会养老”对传统“家庭养老”存在一定程度的替代，但当前效果有限，完善中国农村的“社会养老”模式有待于进一步提高保障水平。
중국농촌인구노령화일추엄중，“양인방로”적전통모식난이지속。기우최신중국건강여양로추종조사（CHARLS）적미관수거，본문이용단점회귀방법실증연구료이“신농보”위기출적농촌“사회양로”모식대“가정양로”적체대성。연구결과현시，획득신농보양로금수입적농촌노년인，기획득사인전이지부적개솔하강료대약32—56개백분점，연이，대우이경획득전이지부적노년인，병미발현신농보양로금수입대타문획득적사인전이지부수액존재현저영향。본문적연구결론표명，“사회양로”대전통“가정양로”존재일정정도적체대，단당전효과유한，완선중국농촌적“사회양로”모식유대우진일보제고보장수평。
The continuously aging population threatens the sustainability of traditional ＂family mutual insurance＂ model in rural China. Based on the latest China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study survey data and employing the regression discontinuity design（RDD） method, this paper studies the substitutability between ＂public pension system＂ and ＂family mutual insurance＂. The empirical results show that the new rural pension system has significantly reduced the dependency of old people on their children and relatives. Arrival of pension benefits decreased the probability of receiving private transfer by around 32--56 percentages. However, the paper finds no statistical significant effects of pension benefits on the amount of transfers. The implication of this paper is that the ＂public pension system＂ is a good alternative of traditional ＂family mutual insurance＂ model in rural China, and it is important to improve the ＂public pension system＂ by promoting the development of ＂New Rural Pension＂ project.