CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于不完全汇率传递理论,结合当前我国宏观经济运行特点,运用结构突变的协整方法,对人民币汇率与我国通货膨胀水平之间的价格传递效应进行研究。长期来看,人民币汇率变动对物价水平的传递效应在2008年10月和2010年5月出现了两次结构性变化;汇率传递系数的符号也在2008年10月份出现变化,由此前的负向传递突变为正向传递。短期来看,人民币汇率变动对物价水平的传递存在着非对称性的短期动态调整过程,并且表现出典型的＂缓升陡降＂型周期波动。
본문기우불완전회솔전체이론,결합당전아국굉관경제운행특점,운용결구돌변적협정방법,대인민폐회솔여아국통화팽창수평지간적개격전체효응진행연구。장기래간,인민폐회솔변동대물개수평적전체효응재2008년10월화2010년5월출현료량차결구성변화;회솔전체계수적부호야재2008년10월빈출현변화,유차전적부향전체돌변위정향전체。단기래간,인민폐회솔변동대물개수평적전체존재착비대칭성적단기동태조정과정,병차표현출전형적＂완승두강＂형주기파동。
This article based on the theory of incomplete exchange rate transmission, combining with the characteristics of the native＇s macroeconomic environments, uses a cointegration test allow for structural changes to investigate the pass-through effect of RMB exchange rate to domestic price. We show that there are two structural changes： October 2008 and May 2010 respectively when RMB exchange rate pass-through to domestic price takes place in China. However, the coefficient sign of the exchange rate also changed after October 2008, it became negative and indicated that trying to rely on the practice of the appreciation of the RMB to control inflation may be backfired. There is a short-term asymmetry dynamic adjustment process, and shows a typical ＂slow up steep fall＂ cycle.