CAJ | 학술논문

人类的非理性被经济学家Keynes视为是造成经济波动的主要原因，而情绪是非理性行为的背后推动力之一。那么情绪是否与股票市场波动有关，甚至预测股市波动？首先，笔者从心理和神经生理角度出发，尝试解释决策主体情绪、社会情绪是如何影响个体金融决策的。其次，笔者将情绪与股市关系研究大致划分为投资者情绪与社会情绪研究。投资者情绪研究主要通过主观调查和客观市场指标构建情绪指标；而近年来的社会情绪研究，尤其是基于互联网平台的社会情绪研究，为情绪与股市关系研究注入了新的活力。关于情绪与股市的关系问题远未定论，情绪影响股市的内在机制也有待未来研究继续深化。而互联网大数据资源和信息技术在情绪与股市关系这一研究领域中，将扮演越来越重要的角色。
인류적비이성피경제학가Keynes시위시조성경제파동적주요원인，이정서시비이성행위적배후추동력지일。나요정서시부여고표시장파동유관，심지예측고시파동？수선，필자종심리화신경생리각도출발，상시해석결책주체정서、사회정서시여하영향개체금융결책적。기차，필자장정서여고시관계연구대치화분위투자자정서여사회정서연구。투자자정서연구주요통과주관조사화객관시장지표구건정서지표；이근년래적사회정서연구，우기시기우호련망평태적사회정서연구，위정서여고시관계연구주입료신적활력。관우정서여고시적관계문제원미정론，정서영향고시적내재궤제야유대미래연구계속심화。이호련망대수거자원화신식기술재정서여고시관계저일연구영역중，장분연월래월중요적각색。
Human irrationality is seen as the main reason for economic fluctuations by economist Keynes, while mood is one of the key factors leading to irrational behavior. This paper thus aims to examine whether mood can correlate to, even predict stock market fluctuations. Firstly, authors try to explain how the mood of decision-makers and social mood influence financial decision-making by the views of psychology and physiology. Secondly, authors broadly divided the studies on the relationship between mood and stock market from the perspectives of investors’ moods and social mood. Studies from the perspective of investors’ mood mainly construct mood indicators through subjective surveys and objective market indicators. In recent years, however, the social mood studies, especially those based on the Internet and information technology, infuse vigor into the study on the relationship between mood and stock market. The relationship between mood and stock market is far from conclusive, and the internal mechanisms on how mood influences stock market should be explored further. What’s more, information technology and the Internet can play a more and more significant role in the future studies on exploring the relationship between mood and stock market.