CAJ | 학술논문

在全球价值链分工背景下,本文利用WIO数据库中1995-2011年的中国投入产出表,估算了中国制造业总体及其细分的14个行业向美国的出口增加值。结果表明：中国制造业的贸易利益体现在出口增加值逐年增加;剔除出口扩张数量效应,出口增加值率稳定在[40%,50%]区间内,短时期内很难快速提高;在出口增加值影响因素的Johansen协整检验和VEC计量模型中,长期内垂直专业化程度对增加值的影响高于其它变量,其余依次是制造业的劳动生产率和规模经济,而短期内变量的影响程度排序与长期恰好相反。
재전구개치련분공배경하,본문이용WIO수거고중1995-2011년적중국투입산출표,고산료중국제조업총체급기세분적14개행업향미국적출구증가치。결과표명：중국제조업적무역이익체현재출구증가치축년증가;척제출구확장수량효응,출구증가치솔은정재[40%,50%]구간내,단시기내흔난쾌속제고;재출구증가치영향인소적Johansen협정검험화VEC계량모형중,장기내수직전업화정도대증가치적영향고우기타변량,기여의차시제조업적노동생산솔화규모경제,이단기내변량적영향정도배서여장기흡호상반。
Against the background of the specialization in the global value chains, the paper estimates the value added in exports of China＇s overall manufacturing industry and its 14 subdivision industries to the US by using the input-output table of China from 1995 to 2011 from the WIO database. The results show that the trade interests of China＇s manufacturing exports are reflected in the growth of the value added in China＇s exports to the US year by year. Excluding the export expansion effect, this paper points out that the growth rate of value added in China＇s manufacturing export has been between 40% and 50%,and the rate can hardly be raised in the short term. This paper then examines the variables affecting China＇s export trade interests, and finds that in the long run the effect of the degree of vertical specialization carries most weight among the influential variables, followed by the labor productivity and the economies of scale. In the short term, however, the influential degree of the variables is reversed.