CAJ | 학술논문

随着废弃电子产品数量的激增,废弃电子产品的资源化成为全球研究的热点问题之一.废弃电子产品估算模型作为废弃电子产品资源化预测系统中的核心环节,开始受到越来越多的关注.本文对四种最具代表性的废旧电子产品估算模型进行了深入分析和比较,并针对每个模型给出了具体算例.对比四个模型的优缺点.卡内基·梅隆模型基于消费者全周期路径对废弃后4种不同的处置方式分别赋予一定比例,估算重复使用量、闲置量、再循环量以及填埋量.市场供给模型基于产品产量、进口量和出口量需假定出售的电子产品到达平均寿命时全部报废,且电子产品的平均寿命稳定,对电子产品销售和报废数据要求较高.斯坦福模型基于寿命期分分布的变化规律增加了产品寿命分布随时间的变化.时间序列模型基于时间序列规律假设预测对象的变化仅与时间有关,应用范围很广,常用于数据选择和结果预测.时间序列模型要求使用的数据满足零均值和平稳性的条件.四种模型具有不同的优缺点和适用范围,卡内基·梅隆模型,市场供给模型,斯坦福模型普遍使用,时间序列模型适用于基于时间的序列问题,精确度较高.这四个模型都可为废弃电子产品资源化方面做出科学决策提供依据.通过四个模型的对比可以得出,我们可以从源头控制废弃电子产品的产生量促进企业和整个社会考虑产品的经济效益和环境效益.控制废弃电子产品的产生.同时,完善我国废旧电子产品后期处理体系,加快废旧电子产品处理的资源化进程,实现社会,环境,资源的可持续发展.
수착폐기전자산품수량적격증,폐기전자산품적자원화성위전구연구적열점문제지일.폐기전자산품고산모형작위폐기전자산품자원화예측계통중적핵심배절,개시수도월래월다적관주.본문대사충최구대표성적폐구전자산품고산모형진행료심입분석화비교,병침대매개모형급출료구체산례.대비사개모형적우결점.잡내기·매륭모형기우소비자전주기로경대폐기후4충불동적처치방식분별부여일정비례,고산중복사용량、한치량、재순배량이급전매량.시장공급모형기우산품산량、진구량화출구량수가정출수적전자산품도체평균수명시전부보폐,차전자산품적평균수명은정,대전자산품소수화보폐수거요구교고.사탄복모형기우수명기분분포적변화규률증가료산품수명분포수시간적변화.시간서렬모형기우시간서렬규률가설예측대상적변화부여시간유관,응용범위흔엄,상용우수거선택화결과예측.시간서렬모형요구사용적수거만족령균치화평은성적조건.사충모형구유불동적우결점화괄용범위,잡내기·매륭모형,시장공급모형,사탄복모형보편사용,시간서렬모형괄용우기우시간적서렬문제,정학도교고.저사개모형도가위폐기전자산품자원화방면주출과학결책제공의거.통과사개모형적대비가이득출,아문가이종원두공제폐기전자산품적산생량촉진기업화정개사회고필산품적경제효익화배경효익.공제폐기전자산품적산생.동시,완선아국폐구전자산품후기처리체계,가쾌폐구전자산품처리적자원화진정,실현사회,배경,자원적가지속발전.
With the sharp increase of the quantity of waste electronic products,recycling of electronic waste becomes a focal point of research.As the key problem of the prediction system of electronic waste recycling,the evaluation models of waste electronic products are increasingly being focused on.This paper thoroughly analyzes four of the most representative evaluation models of waste electronic products including Carnegie Model,Supply Model,Stanford Model,and Time Series Model,and gives a comparison among them in detail.Comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the four models Specific examples aiming at the above four models are provided respectively.Carnegie Model,which is based on the consumer all cycle path have four different treatments and are given certain proportion respectively to estimate the repeated usage,idle capacity,recycle and landfill.Since different models have their different application areas,it is necessary to make an appropriate choice according to the actual situation when choosing evaluation models.Supply Model,which is based on the product yield,imports and exports supposes that electronic products must scrap entirely at the average life expectancy,and the average life span for the electronic products is stable.The sales data and scrapped data of electronic products require higher quality.Stanford model which is based on change rule of the distribution of longevity considers have a new factor that the product life distribution changes with time.Time Series Model which is based on time series law supposes that the change of the object is only related with time.Time series model requires the used data to meet zero mean and stability conditions.The application of the model is very wide,and it is often used for data selection and result prediction.Four kinds of models with different advantages and disadvantages and applicable range,Carnegie Model,Supply Model and Stanford Model are widely used.Time series model based on time sequence has higher precision.These four models can provide the basic data for making scientific decision in waste electronic products recycling.Through comparing the four models we can know that we can control the discharge of waste electronic products from the source to promote enterprise and the society as a whole to consider economic and environmental benefits of the product and control the generation of waste electronic products.At the same time,we should improve the post-processing system of waste electronic products in our country,accelerate the process of recycling of waste electronic products processing and realize the sustainable development of society,environment resources.