中国科技论坛
中國科技論罈
중국과기론단
Forum on Science and Technology in China
2014年
12期
56~61
,共null页
产业结构 投入产出模型 技术需求
產業結構 投入產齣模型 技術需求
산업결구 투입산출모형 기술수구
Industrial structure; Input-output model; Technology demand
基于图论最大权重生成树原理的投入产出定性分析和网络关系动态演化模型可以分别从比较静态和动态两个角度刻画产业结构演化的特点。本文基于1995年和2010年中国产业结构基础树，比较静态分析中国产业结构变化特点；并采用主体调整网络演化模型，估计这15年间中国产业结构网络的动态演化特征。研究结果表明，中国关键生产部门没有发生变化，农林牧渔和采矿业、化学工业在产业体系中仍居于关键地位；中国产业结构得以改善，产业链条延长，部门关联度加深，产业波及源对相关产业的波及效果明显增强。
基于圖論最大權重生成樹原理的投入產齣定性分析和網絡關繫動態縯化模型可以分彆從比較靜態和動態兩箇角度刻畫產業結構縯化的特點。本文基于1995年和2010年中國產業結構基礎樹，比較靜態分析中國產業結構變化特點；併採用主體調整網絡縯化模型，估計這15年間中國產業結構網絡的動態縯化特徵。研究結果錶明，中國關鍵生產部門沒有髮生變化，農林牧漁和採礦業、化學工業在產業體繫中仍居于關鍵地位；中國產業結構得以改善，產業鏈條延長，部門關聯度加深，產業波及源對相關產業的波及效果明顯增彊。
기우도론최대권중생성수원리적투입산출정성분석화망락관계동태연화모형가이분별종비교정태화동태량개각도각화산업결구연화적특점。본문기우1995년화2010년중국산업결구기출수，비교정태분석중국산업결구변화특점；병채용주체조정망락연화모형，고계저15년간중국산업결구망락적동태연화특정。연구결과표명，중국관건생산부문몰유발생변화，농림목어화채광업、화학공업재산업체계중잉거우관건지위；중국산업결구득이개선，산업련조연장，부문관련도가심，산업파급원대상관산업적파급효과명현증강。
The qualitative analysis of the input-output and the dynamic evolution characteristics of the network model can describe the evolution characteristics of industrial structure based on graph theory from the perspective of comparative static and dynamic characteristics respectively. Based on China＇s industrial structure-based tree in 1995 and 2010, the paper analyzed the changing characteristics of China＇s industrial structure and estimated the dynamic evolution of China＇s industrial structure of the network in 15 years based on actor- oriented network evolution model. The result shows that although China＇s economy has made great achievements, no change happened in the key productive sectors. And agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and mining industry, and the chemical industry still lie in key position in the industrial system; Chinese industrial structure has been improved, industrial chain has been extended, department correlation has been deepened, and ripple effect of industry sources has effected related industries significantly.
