CAJ | 학술논문

考虑到当前金融状况指数（FCI）理论构建和指标选取存在的片面性，本文以产品市场均衡和货币市场均衡为切入点，提出将非人力财富比重作为重要因素纳入FCI的新观点。并针对每一个要素，均用验证性因素分析等方法从若干指标中筛选出代表性最佳的指标，再以VAR模型为赋权方法得到我国的FCI。通过与CPI的因果关联、动态分析以及与部分学者的研究成果的比较，发现经过指标定量筛选后构建的FCI具有最佳经济效果，更符合中国现实。
고필도당전금융상황지수（FCI）이론구건화지표선취존재적편면성，본문이산품시장균형화화폐시장균형위절입점，제출장비인력재부비중작위중요인소납입FCI적신관점。병침대매일개요소，균용험증성인소분석등방법종약간지표중사선출대표성최가적지표，재이VAR모형위부권방법득도아국적FCI。통과여CPI적인과관련、동태분석이급여부분학자적연구성과적비교，발현경과지표정량사선후구건적FCI구유최가경제효과，경부합중국현실。
Considered the onesidedness of the current theories construction and indicators selection on FCI, this paper selects a starting point on products market equilibrium and money market equilibriums, and suggests taking the proportion of non-human wealth into the FCI as another important dimension. For each dimension, confirmatory factor analysis methods are used to select the indicators of the best representativeness from a number of indicators, and then get the FCI with VAR model as the empowering way. The results show that the FCI construction after screening quantitative indicators has the best economic results, and are more in line with China＇s realities by comparing with the causal association and dunamic analysis with the CPI and the existing research results.