CAJ | 학술논문

基于生态足迹理论，运用因子调整后的生态足迹方法，对广西2001～2012年的生态足迹进行时间序列测度。采用主成分回归分析方法，对广西2001～2012年生态足迹变化的社会经济驱动因素进行分析。研究表明：（1）广西人均生态足迹在逐年增长，而人均生态承载力没有发生明显变化，生态赤字和生态压力指数在逐年扩大，造成生态环境的一定压力；单位万元GDP生态足迹逐年减少、生态足迹多样性指数和生态经济发展能力逐年增加，表现出一定的可持续性。（2）广西的林地为生态盈余，但盈余在逐年减少，耕地为生态赤字，且赤字在逐年增加，草地基本保持在生态平衡状态。（3）广西生态足迹增长驱动因素的7个指标可以归结为经济发展状况和产业结构2个主成分因子。其中，人均生态足迹与人均GDP、固定资产投资、城镇化率、重工业比重呈正相关，与恩格尔系数、第三产业贡献率、万元GDP能耗呈负相关。据此必须调整产业结构和消费结构，促进经济转型，控制人口规模，加强基础设施建设，以促进广西可持续发展。
기우생태족적이론，운용인자조정후적생태족적방법，대엄서2001～2012년적생태족적진행시간서렬측도。채용주성분회귀분석방법，대엄서2001～2012년생태족적변화적사회경제구동인소진행분석。연구표명：（1）엄서인균생태족적재축년증장，이인균생태승재력몰유발생명현변화，생태적자화생태압력지수재축년확대，조성생태배경적일정압력；단위만원GDP생태족적축년감소、생태족적다양성지수화생태경제발전능력축년증가，표현출일정적가지속성。（2）엄서적임지위생태영여，단영여재축년감소，경지위생태적자，차적자재축년증가，초지기본보지재생태평형상태。（3）엄서생태족적증장구동인소적7개지표가이귀결위경제발전상황화산업결구2개주성분인자。기중，인균생태족적여인균GDP、고정자산투자、성진화솔、중공업비중정정상관，여은격이계수、제삼산업공헌솔、만원GDP능모정부상관。거차필수조정산업결구화소비결구，촉진경제전형，공제인구규모，가강기출설시건설，이촉진엄서가지속발전。
The time series of ecological footprint （EF） per capita in Guangxi from 2001 to 2012 was calculated by ad- justed equivalence factors and yield factors based on EF Method. Then, a multivariate linear regression model was es- tablished to analyze the driving effects of socio-economic system on EF per capita in Guangxi. The results showed that：（1）During the period EF per capita generally grew, while the EF per capita did not change significantly, ecologi- cal deficit and ecological pressure index expanded each year, causing some pressure on the ecological environment. But the unit of 10 000 in GDP＇s ecological footprint dropped gradually, eco-economic system development capaci- ty and ecological diversity index improved year by year, which showed the sustainability of Guangxi.（2） Guangxi for- est land showed ecological surplus, but the surplus was decreasing every year. Cultivated land showed ecological defi- cit, and the deficit was increasing gradually. The grass land remained in the ecological balance of the state. （3） The seven driving effects of socio-economic system on EF per capita in Guangxi could be attributed to the economic de- velopment and industrial structure two principal components. There was a positive correlation between the EF per capita and per capita GDP, fixed-asset investment, urbanization rate, the proportion of heavy industry, on the con- trary, the EF per captia associated with Engel coe~cient, the contribution rate of the tertiary industry and 10000 GDP energy consumption of negative. Accordingly, in order to promote sustainable development in Guangxi, it is important to improve the level of economic development and urbanization process, last but not least, promote eco- nomic restructuring, to control population size and strengthen infrastructure construction.