CAJ | 학술논문

基于1994～2010年30个省（市、自治区）的收入预算执行情况，文章发现“我国地方政府收入预算科学性整体偏低”，“低估政府收入具有普遍性”，“偏差率在东中西部变化趋势基本相同，但有一定扩大趋势”等特点。其中原因既与技术层面的落后有关，更有制度层面的缺陷，特别是与超收资金管理制度、政府官员考核晋升制度有关。基于此，文章建议将收入预算与收入预测相分离，政府购买收入预测服务；将超收资金全部纳入预算内管理；将政府官员考核重点由GDP增长率转向“市场不能干，市场干不好”的地方。
기우1994～2010년30개성（시、자치구）적수입예산집행정황，문장발현“아국지방정부수입예산과학성정체편저”，“저고정부수입구유보편성”，“편차솔재동중서부변화추세기본상동，단유일정확대추세”등특점。기중원인기여기술층면적락후유관，경유제도층면적결함，특별시여초수자금관리제도、정부관원고핵진승제도유관。기우차，문장건의장수입예산여수입예측상분리，정부구매수입예측복무；장초수자금전부납입예산내관리；장정부관원고핵중점유GDP증장솔전향“시장불능간，시장간불호”적지방。
Based on the 1994～2010 local revenue budget performance, this paper discusses how scientific local government revenue budgets are. It has the following characteristics： they are not so scientific as a whole, local government revenue is underestimated, the relation with the economic cycle is not significant, and the gap between the deviation in eastern region and those in other areas is widening. The main reasons are technical im- perfections and institutional flaws, especially ＂greater discretion＂ in budgetary surplus funds and ＂more empha- sis on GDP growth in the government official assessment＂. To make local government revenue budget, we suggest that the revenue projection and revenue budget be separated, governments purchase revenue forecasting services, all government funds be incorporated into budgets, and the assessment of government officials focus on how they have done in areas ＂the market cannot do or cannot do well＂.