CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过文献梳理,以1999年第一季度至2012年第二季度的面板数据（美、欧、日、英）为样本，应用非线性面板平滑转换回归（PSTR）模型对国际货币的影响因子进行研究。在众多的影响因子中，那些体现内在结构的因子。诸如网络外部性、经济增长和净出口（以下简称“三因子”）对其货币国际化程度具有非线性的影响。这种非线性特征源于自身的内生性并且在影响国际货币占比时出现在高低两种不同的体制（惯性区间），随着三因子规模的变动，在两种体制之间进行平滑转换，这也为未来新进入的国际货币创造了切入机会．
본문통과문헌소리,이1999년제일계도지2012년제이계도적면판수거（미、구、일、영）위양본，응용비선성면판평활전환회귀（PSTR）모형대국제화폐적영향인자진행연구。재음다적영향인자중，나사체현내재결구적인자。제여망락외부성、경제증장화정출구（이하간칭“삼인자”）대기화폐국제화정도구유비선성적영향。저충비선성특정원우자신적내생성병차재영향국제화폐점비시출현재고저량충불동적체제（관성구간），수착삼인자규모적변동，재량충체제지간진행평활전환，저야위미래신진입적국제화폐창조료절입궤회．
As pointed out by Chinn M （2012）, there exists a nonlinear relationship between affecting factors and the ratio of international currencies when they became major ones. In the inertia zone they will take turns to go up and down. Similar to the literature survey, this study finds the factors such as network externality, economic growth and net export （three components） exert a great impact on the formulation of the international currencies by Panel Smooth Transition Regression （PSTR） based on the panel data （US Dollar, Euro, Yen and Pound Sterling） between 1999 Q1 and 2012Q2. Among many factors, only these three components are endowed with nonlinearity due to their endogenous structures. The nonlinear dynamics originated from their endogeneity affect the ratio of international currencies worldwide. The feature accounts for the changes of regimes high and low respectively to the inertia of the currencies, whieh switch smoothly within the regimes together with momentum of network externality and economic scale. The result will shed light on the new comers in their approach to become international currencies.