CAJ | 학술논문

以中国产业部门为研究对象．基于投入产出技术分别构建需求拉动下和供给驱动下的碳排放模型，采用碳平均传播长度（APL）指标测算产业部门之间的碳距离。衡量产业部门的碳波及效应。并区分后向碳APL和前向碳APL识别产业部门的碳波及链。实证分析表明．第二产业是中国能源消费碳排放的大户．碳排放量离达165136．884万t．所占比例达到整个产业部门碳排放的98．23％．尤其是炼焦化工金属产品制造业和电力燃气及水的生产供应业。所占比例高达87．52％．其中，电力燃气及水的生产供应业的碳排放强度最大．为2．123t／万元。计算并对比各部门后向碳APL和前向碳APL的平均值和标准差．结果显示前向碳APL数值较大且分散，说明在“需求拉动经济”的政策背景下，需求拉动作用下的产业部门碳波及效应较供给驱动作用下的碳波及效应更为显著。进一步对各部门碳供给产业和碳需求产业进行识别．发现产业系统的碳波及链呈现出错综复杂的网状结构而非单一的线性链条．机械设备制造业和炼焦化工金属产品制造业位于碳波及链的上游。采掘业和电力燃气及水的生产供应业两大部门位于碳波及链的末端．农林牧渔业、纺织皮革木材造纸制造业、食品制造及烟草加工业、交通运输仓储和邮政业等部门之间相互关联和波及。互相转移和吸收碳排放。因此．产业部门节能减排工作的顺利实施．必须从产业系统总体的角度进行科学规划．清楚地认识到各个产业部门在产业碳波及链中的功能和作用，通过纵向和横向的沟通与竞合．推动部门自身和其他部门之间的协同减排。
이중국산업부문위연구대상．기우투입산출기술분별구건수구랍동하화공급구동하적탄배방모형，채용탄평균전파장도（APL）지표측산산업부문지간적탄거리。형양산업부문적탄파급효응。병구분후향탄APL화전향탄APL식별산업부문적탄파급련。실증분석표명．제이산업시중국능원소비탄배방적대호．탄배방량리체165136．884만t．소점비례체도정개산업부문탄배방적98．23％．우기시련초화공금속산품제조업화전력연기급수적생산공응업。소점비례고체87．52％．기중，전력연기급수적생산공응업적탄배방강도최대．위2．123t／만원。계산병대비각부문후향탄APL화전향탄APL적평균치화표준차．결과현시전향탄APL수치교대차분산，설명재“수구랍동경제”적정책배경하，수구랍동작용하적산업부문탄파급효응교공급구동작용하적탄파급효응경위현저。진일보대각부문탄공급산업화탄수구산업진행식별．발현산업계통적탄파급련정현출착종복잡적망상결구이비단일적선성련조．궤계설비제조업화련초화공금속산품제조업위우탄파급련적상유。채굴업화전력연기급수적생산공응업량대부문위우탄파급련적말단．농림목어업、방직피혁목재조지제조업、식품제조급연초가공업、교통운수창저화유정업등부문지간상호관련화파급。호상전이화흡수탄배방。인차．산업부문절능감배공작적순리실시．필수종산업계통총체적각도진행과학규화．청초지인식도각개산업부문재산업탄파급련중적공능화작용，통과종향화횡향적구통여경합．추동부문자신화기타부문지간적협동감배。
With the Chinese industrial sectors as the object, the demand-driven and supply-driven carbon emission models are first built based on the input-output technique, and then the carbon propagation effects are measured by computing the distance between different industrial sectors with the average propagation length （APL） index for carbon emission. Based on this measurement, the carbon propagation chain of industrial sectors is finally identified using the backward carbon APL and forward carbon APL. The empirical analysis shows that the carbon emission of the second industry is 1 651 368 840 ton accounting for 98.23% of the whole carbon emissions of all industrial sectors. For this reason, the second industry is responsible for the major carbon emission. Especially, the carbon emission of coking coal, chemical and metal manufacture sector and the electricity, gas and water production/supply sector make up 87.52% of the whole carbon emission of all industrial sectors, where the electricity, gas and water production/supply sector is the most remarkable one in carbon emission intensity with 2. 123 ton per 10 000 Yuan. The computation and comparison results of the mean value and standard deviation of the backward carbon APL and forward carbon APL indexes show that the forward carbon APL is big and decentralized, and that the demand-driven carbon propogation effect is more remarkable than the supply-driven one under the demand-drive-economy background. The further identifications of carbon supply industry and carbon demand industry show that the carbon propagation chain presents an intricate network structure rather than simple linear structure. In this network structure, the machinery equipment manufacturing sector and coking coal, chemical and metal manufacture sector are in the upstream of the carbon propagation chain, while the mining sector and electricity, gas and water production/supply sector are in the downstream. For the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector, textile, leather, wood and paper manufacturing sector, foods and tobacco manufacturing sector, transport, storage and post sector, their carbon emissions associate and propagate each other, and hence their carbon emissions can transfer and absorb each other. Therefore, in order to effectively reduce the carbon emissions, it is essential to realize the function and effect of sectors in carbon propagation chain and to promote the cooperation between each other by vertical and horizontal communication and competition.