CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用投入产出方法研究了河北钢铁产业对其他王业部门的波及效应。依据历年统计资料和相关文献分析了河北省主要耗能产业的能源消耗和污染物排放水平，模拟分析了缩减河北钢铁产业规模带来的节能减排效果。研究表明：河北省钢铁产业影响力系数为1．264，感应度系数为3．285，其发展对其他各产业的影响带动作用和受其他产业发展的拉动效应都非常明显；河北钢铁产业对重工业各部门的同向波及效应比较明显，其总产值变动10％时会波及石油和天然气开采业总产值变动33．35％，金属矿采选业总产值变动17．37％，煤炭开采和洗选业总产值变动18．00％，金属制品业总产值变动6．92％。压缩钢铁产业规模既有助于淘汰钢铁过剩产能又有利于扭转河北工业结构不断重型化的趋势。在钢铁产业粗钢产量下降6000万t的波及影响下，河北省前十大耗能产业的能耗将比2012年可降低19．76％（4662．02万t标准煤），CO：、SO：、NOx和烟粉尘排放量将分别下降15．41％110163．21万t）、23．57％（31．61万t）、8．68％（15．29万t）和28．51％《35．24万t）。淘汰落后产能和治理环境污染己成为河北省发展需优先解决的两大难题，而缩减钢铁产业规模应该成为河北省解决两大难题的关键步骤和重要举措。本文的研究既为解决河北省产能过剩问题提供了理论支撑，同时也为合理制定国家钢铁工业规划和相关政策提供了理论依据。
본문이용투입산출방법연구료하북강철산업대기타왕업부문적파급효응。의거력년통계자료화상관문헌분석료하북성주요모능산업적능원소모화오염물배방수평，모의분석료축감하북강철산업규모대래적절능감배효과。연구표명：하북성강철산업영향력계수위1．264，감응도계수위3．285，기발전대기타각산업적영향대동작용화수기타산업발전적랍동효응도비상명현；하북강철산업대중공업각부문적동향파급효응비교명현，기총산치변동10％시회파급석유화천연기개채업총산치변동33．35％，금속광채선업총산치변동17．37％，매탄개채화세선업총산치변동18．00％，금속제품업총산치변동6．92％。압축강철산업규모기유조우도태강철과잉산능우유리우뉴전하북공업결구불단중형화적추세。재강철산업조강산량하강6000만t적파급영향하，하북성전십대모능산업적능모장비2012년가강저19．76％（4662．02만t표준매），CO：、SO：、NOx화연분진배방량장분별하강15．41％110163．21만t）、23．57％（31．61만t）、8．68％（15．29만t）화28．51％《35．24만t）。도태락후산능화치리배경오염기성위하북성발전수우선해결적량대난제，이축감강철산업규모응해성위하북성해결량대난제적관건보취화중요거조。본문적연구기위해결하북성산능과잉문제제공료이론지탱，동시야위합리제정국가강철공업규화화상관정책제공료이론의거。
This paper studied the ripple effect of the steel industry on other industries in Hebei Province using the input-output method, and analyzed the major energy-consuming industries＇ level of energy consumption and pollutant emissions according to the historical statistics and the relevant literature, and simulated the energy saving and emission reduction effect of other industrial sectors caused by the steel industry. Studies have shown that： the influence coefficient of the steel industry was 1. 264 in Hebei Province; and the sensitivity coefficient was 3. 285; the leading impact of its development on other industries and the effects stimulated by other industries development were very obvious; the steel industry have a significant ripple effect in the same direction on heavy industry sectors, when the output value of the steel industry changed 10%, the output value of the oil and gas exploration industry would change 33.35%, and the output value of the metal mining industry would change 17.37%, and the output value of the coal mining and washing industry would change 18.00%, and the output value of the metal products industry would change 9.00% in Hebei Province. The compression can help eliminate beth the scale of the steel industry overeapacity and it can be useful to reserve the continued heavy industry structural trend in Hebei Province; when 60 million tons of crude steel production reduced, the energy consumption of the top 10 energy-intensive industries in Hebei Province can be reduced 19.76% （46.62 million tons of Standard Coal）, the emissions of CO2,SO2,NOx and smoke dust will be decreased by 15.41% （10. 16 million tons）, 23.57% （316.1 thousand tons）, 8.68% （152.9 thousand tons）and 28.51% （352.4 thousand tons） Compared with energy consumption in 2012. The elimination of backward production capacity and environmental pollution governance have become two major problems that need to be given priority to in the Hebei Province development, and reducing the size of the steel industry should become the key step and an important measure to solve two problems. This study provides beth a theoretical support to solve the problem of excessive capacity in Hebei Province, and provides a theoretical basis for the rational development of the national steel industry policy and planning.