CAJ | 학술논문

揭示城镇化进程中的关键影响因素及其作用路径，对于实施我国“十二五”时期经济发展规划中的城镇化战略。实现经济社会的健康发展，有着重要的现实意义。基于人口城镇化、经济城镇化和社会城镇化等三个纬度的城镇化度量指标。再加上考察城镇化影响因素的诸多变量难以寻找单一数据指标进行衡量．使得传统计量方法进行城镇化关键影响因素的分析存在一定局限性。本文在城镇化影响机制理论的基础上．基于结构方程模型方法，采用全国282个地级城市的统计数据，对我国城镇化的影响因素及其效应进行实证分析。探求推进我国城镇化进程的关键影响因素及其效应。研究结果表明，要素投入、消费需求、金融深化、空间聚集、人口素质和政府作用等因素对于城镇化的发展都发挥了积极作用；要素投入、人口素质和空间聚集等经济发展因素可以促进城镇化程度的提高．并有显著的影响；而政府作用、消费需求和金融深化对城镇化程度也有正向的作用，但目前的数据显示，其影响水平并不显著。从总体上讲。生产要素的投入是促进城镇化的根本因素。而2002年与2011年数据对比分析结果显示。城镇的人口素质和城镇的空间聚集效应等在城镇化进程中也逐步发挥了关键作用。据此，建议决策当局在制定和实施城镇化战略时，应根据结构模型所展现的路径关系和城镇化进程中的内部路径机理。协同使用相关的政策及各项因素的促进激励措施。优先保证内生驱动因素作用的有效发挥。
게시성진화진정중적관건영향인소급기작용로경，대우실시아국“십이오”시기경제발전규화중적성진화전략。실현경제사회적건강발전，유착중요적현실의의。기우인구성진화、경제성진화화사회성진화등삼개위도적성진화도량지표。재가상고찰성진화영향인소적제다변량난이심조단일수거지표진행형량．사득전통계량방법진행성진화관건영향인소적분석존재일정국한성。본문재성진화영향궤제이론적기출상．기우결구방정모형방법，채용전국282개지급성시적통계수거，대아국성진화적영향인소급기효응진행실증분석。탐구추진아국성진화진정적관건영향인소급기효응。연구결과표명，요소투입、소비수구、금융심화、공간취집、인구소질화정부작용등인소대우성진화적발전도발휘료적겁작용；요소투입、인구소질화공간취집등경제발전인소가이촉진성진화정도적제고．병유현저적영향；이정부작용、소비수구화금융심화대성진화정도야유정향적작용，단목전적수거현시，기영향수평병불현저。종총체상강。생산요소적투입시촉진성진화적근본인소。이2002년여2011년수거대비분석결과현시。성진적인구소질화성진적공간취집효응등재성진화진정중야축보발휘료관건작용。거차，건의결책당국재제정화실시성진화전략시，응근거결구모형소전현적로경관계화성진화진정중적내부로경궤리。협동사용상관적정책급각항인소적촉진격려조시。우선보증내생구동인소작용적유효발휘。
As part of the ＇ twelfth five - year plan＇ of the economic development in China, urbanization is an important strategy. It is of great practical significance for the healthy operation of the economy and the society to find out the key influential factors and the resulting effects of the urbanization process. There are some limitations for the traditional statistical methods to examine the relevant influential factors because of the difficulties in the measurement of urbanization with the multiple dimensions of economic urbanization, population urbanization and social urbanization and in the setting of a single indicator to represent multiple variables of a number of influential factors. Based on the study of the influence mechanism theory of urbanization and the structural equation model method, this paper collects nearly 10 years of statistical data of 282 cities in China and analyses empirically the critical influential factors of urbanization and its effects. The results show that the process of urbanization can be promoted by many economic development factors including the input of the factors of production, the consumer demand, the deepening of finance, the spatial clustering, the educational quality of people, and the role of the government, among which the input of the factors of production, the educational quality of people and the spatial clustering appear to have significant influence, while the role of the government, the consumer demand and the deepening of finance appear to have positive influence but the level of influence is not significant. Generally speaking, the input of factors of production is the basic factor in the promotion of the urbanization. The comparison of the data of 2002 and 2011 shows that urban population quality and urban space aggregation effects gradually play more critical roles in the urbanization process. We suggest that decision -making authorities should make collaborative use of relevant policies and the incentive measures of various promotion factors according to the path relationships and the internal path mechanisms shown by the structural model and take measures to ensure the effective roles of the endogenous driving factors.