CAJ | 학술논문

钢存量是未来二次资源的潜在来源。利用二次资源进行钢铁生产能够降低钢铁工业对铁矿石的依赖．并且能够有效解决当前钢铁行业高能耗、高排放、高污染的问题。掌握钢在中国工业化演进过程中的沉淀运动规律。能够为资源战略、产业政策和环境政策的制定提供科学依据。并为钢铁工业实现循环经济和可持续发展提供战略指导。本文从存量和流量动态性的视角出发．利用国际上新兴的动态物质流分析方法，对工业化演进过程中中国国家层面1949—2012年钢人为沉淀运动规律进行研究。研究结果表明，钢的沉淀运动情况与中国国家工业化进程的所处阶段高度相关。建国后中国钢总存量和人均存量随着工业化进程的演进缓慢增长．然后于国民经济和社会发展的“九五”中期进入快速增长阶段。并于“十一五”时期进入迅速增长阶段。在进入“十二五”时期以后。中国钢总存量和人均存量进一步增长。钢持续蓄积于中国社会经济系统之中。其中．建筑中蓄积的钢存量最多．其次为机械设备。再次为交通运输设备。2006年．中国人均钢存量达到了2t／人．此数值被认为是社会建设进入强劲发展阶段的临界值．而此时正值中国“十一五”时期的开端。2011年和2012年中国人均钢存量分别约为3．69t／人和4．05t／人．尚未出现人均存量饱和的趋势。钢存量会进一步增加。基于实证研究结果，我国应该进行钢产品消费结构的指导。加大循环技术的研发力度、增加钢二次生产能力的投资，以及进一步开展钢人为沉淀运动的预测研究．以充分掌握钢的未来消费、蓄积以及退役规律。
강존량시미래이차자원적잠재래원。이용이차자원진행강철생산능구강저강철공업대철광석적의뢰．병차능구유효해결당전강철행업고능모、고배방、고오염적문제。장악강재중국공업화연진과정중적침정운동규률。능구위자원전략、산업정책화배경정책적제정제공과학의거。병위강철공업실현순배경제화가지속발전제공전략지도。본문종존량화류량동태성적시각출발．이용국제상신흥적동태물질류분석방법，대공업화연진과정중중국국가층면1949—2012년강인위침정운동규률진행연구。연구결과표명，강적침정운동정황여중국국가공업화진정적소처계단고도상관。건국후중국강총존량화인균존량수착공업화진정적연진완만증장．연후우국민경제화사회발전적“구오”중기진입쾌속증장계단。병우“십일오”시기진입신속증장계단。재진입“십이오”시기이후。중국강총존량화인균존량진일보증장。강지속축적우중국사회경제계통지중。기중．건축중축적적강존량최다．기차위궤계설비。재차위교통운수설비。2006년．중국인균강존량체도료2t／인．차수치피인위시사회건설진입강경발전계단적림계치．이차시정치중국“십일오”시기적개단。2011년화2012년중국인균강존량분별약위3．69t／인화4．05t／인．상미출현인균존량포화적추세。강존량회진일보증가。기우실증연구결과，아국응해진행강산품소비결구적지도。가대순배기술적연발력도、증가강이차생산능력적투자，이급진일보개전강인위침정운동적예측연구．이충분장악강적미래소비、축적이급퇴역규률。
Steel stock is the potential source of secondary resources. The use of secondary resources in the production process of iron and steel can reduce the dependence on iron ore, and can also effectively solve the problems of high energy consumption, high emission and high pollution. The precipitation pattern of steel in the evolution of Chinese industrialization process can provide scientific basis for the resource strategy, industrial policy and environmental policy, and can also provide the strategic guidance for circular economy and sustainable development in iron and steel industry. In this paper, anthropogenic precipitation movement of steel resource is studied using dynamic material flow analysis from the perspective of stock and flow dynamics between 1949 and 2012 at Chinese national level. The results show that there is close connection between the precipitation changes of steel resources and the stages of Chinese national industrialization process. Total stock and per capita stock of steel resource grew slowly with the evolution of industrialization process after the founding of China, and then grew quickly from the middle of the Ninth Five Year Plan, and finally entered into the rapid growth phase in the period of the 1 lth Five Year plan of national economy and social development. The total stock and per capita stock of steel grew further after entering the Twelfth Five Year period, steel is stored continuously in the social and economic system of China. Among them, most of the stock is contained in construction, followed by mechanical and transportation equipments. Per capita stock of steel resource in 2006 reached the critical value of 2t, which means the strong development phase is showed up, and it is the beginning of the llth Five Year plan in China. Per capita stock of steel is about 3.69 t/cap and 4.05 t/cap in 2011 and 2012 respectively, the saturation trend of per capita stock has not yet appeared, the stock in Chinese society will increase further. Based on the results of the empirical research, the guidance to consumption structure of steel should be taken, the R＆D efforts of circulation technology should be intensified, the investment on secondary production capacity of steel should be increased, and the future anthropogenic precipitation movement should be predicted, in order to fully grasp the future patterns of consumption, accumulation and retirement.