上海国土资源
上海國土資源
상해국토자원
2014年
2期
79~82
,共null页
城镇化 建设用地 需求量预测 经济地耗 灰色–马尔可夫模型
城鎮化 建設用地 需求量預測 經濟地耗 灰色–馬爾可伕模型
성진화 건설용지 수구량예측 경제지모 회색–마이가부모형
urbanization; construction land; demand prediction; land consumption under economic development; grey-Markov model
城镇化进程中因建设用地的动态性与影响因素的多样性,使得对建设用地需求量进行准确预测难度较大.将多种适用的预测方法结合,是较好的处理方式.本文采用经济地耗预测法、灰色-马尔可夫模型预测法,实现了预测方法的优势互补.对江苏省淮安市未来建设用地需求量的实际应用表明,该方法能有效提高预测精度,具有科学性和实用性.
城鎮化進程中因建設用地的動態性與影響因素的多樣性,使得對建設用地需求量進行準確預測難度較大.將多種適用的預測方法結閤,是較好的處理方式.本文採用經濟地耗預測法、灰色-馬爾可伕模型預測法,實現瞭預測方法的優勢互補.對江囌省淮安市未來建設用地需求量的實際應用錶明,該方法能有效提高預測精度,具有科學性和實用性.
성진화진정중인건설용지적동태성여영향인소적다양성,사득대건설용지수구량진행준학예측난도교대.장다충괄용적예측방법결합,시교호적처리방식.본문채용경제지모예측법、회색-마이가부모형예측법,실현료예측방법적우세호보.대강소성회안시미래건설용지수구량적실제응용표명,해방법능유효제고예측정도,구유과학성화실용성.
Because of the dynamics and diversity of factors that influence construction land during the urbanization process,the forecasting of demand for construction land is difficult. The problem represents a case that should benefit from anapproach that integrates several forecasting methods. This paper adopts the economic consumption forecasting methodand the forecasting method of the Grey Markov model, and in doing so achieves the complementary advantages of bothprediction methods. The practical application of forecasting demand for construction land in Huaian city, Jiangsu province,shows that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of prediction and that the method has a betterscientific basis and superior practical capability compared with other methods.
