CAJ | 학술논문

基于549家中国制造业上市公司2002—2012年的面板数据,以专利作为创新的代理变量,通过测量持续创新时间,运用生存分析的方法,实证研究中国制造业上市公司是否存在创新持续性,实证结果表明：（1）中国制造业企业存在持续创新,持续创新的平均年限为九年。（2）创新持续时间在三年以内时,高新技术类企业的生存概率要大于非高新技术类企业,而创新持续时间超过三年时,高新技术类企业生存的概率要小于非高新技术类企业。然后以企业创新的风险率作为被解释变量,运用离散久期模型,通过控制以前研究中运用连续时间久期模型所出现的问题（不可观测的异质性,比例风险假设）,实证研究影响持续创新的因素。实证结果表明：企业经营年限、人均资本比率对企业的持续创新影响显著为正,企业规模对持续创新的影响显著为负,而企业利润对持续创新的影响不够显著;民营企业的创新持续性要大于国有企业。
기우549가중국제조업상시공사2002—2012년적면판수거,이전리작위창신적대리변량,통과측량지속창신시간,운용생존분석적방법,실증연구중국제조업상시공사시부존재창신지속성,실증결과표명：（1）중국제조업기업존재지속창신,지속창신적평균년한위구년。（2）창신지속시간재삼년이내시,고신기술류기업적생존개솔요대우비고신기술류기업,이창신지속시간초과삼년시,고신기술류기업생존적개솔요소우비고신기술류기업。연후이기업창신적풍험솔작위피해석변량,운용리산구기모형,통과공제이전연구중운용련속시간구기모형소출현적문제（불가관측적이질성,비례풍험가설）,실증연구영향지속창신적인소。실증결과표명：기업경영년한、인균자본비솔대기업적지속창신영향현저위정,기업규모대지속창신적영향현저위부,이기업리윤대지속창신적영향불구현저;민영기업적창신지속성요대우국유기업。
This study using a panel dataset of 549 China＇s public manufacturing firms over the period of 2002 -2012, using patent as proxy variables of innovation, to examine weather manufacturing firms exit the persistence of innovation by measuring the time of continuous innovation, and using survival analysis method. The empirical results show that：（ 1 ） China~ Manufacturing Firms exit persistence effect, and the average time is 9 years. （2） When the duration year is less that 3 years, the survival rate of scientific industries is greater than non - scientific industries, when the duration year is more that 3 years, the result inverse. At last, we use hazard rate as dependent variable, employing discrete time duration model to account for some problems in the prior continuous time duration model （firm heterogeneity and proportion hazard hypothesis）, examining the determinants of innovations in China＇s manufacturing sector. The empirical results show that：（1） Firms＇age and capital ratio have positive effect to persistence in- novation, firms＇ size have negative effect to persistence innovation, the effect of firms＇profit is not significant. （2） The persistence of private enter- prises is greater than state - owned enterprises.