CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于演化金融方法，将房地产市场投资者预期分为稳健型预期（投资策略是根据基本面投资）和风险型预期（投资策略是追涨杀跌）两类，同时投资者会根据市场环境调整自身预期，在此基础上测度了不同类型预期在我国房价泡沫形成中的作用，并进一步区分了不同城市房价泡沫的类型。研究表明：尽管稳健型预期对房价泡沫存在显著抑制效应，但风险型预期的放大效应在房价泡沫形成中起了主导作用；此外，东部地区城市房价泡沫主要属于强风险型预期与强稳健型预期型，中西部地区城市房价泡沫则主要属于弱稳健型预期型。
본문기우연화금융방법，장방지산시장투자자예기분위은건형예기（투자책략시근거기본면투자）화풍험형예기（투자책략시추창살질）량류，동시투자자회근거시장배경조정자신예기，재차기출상측도료불동류형예기재아국방개포말형성중적작용，병진일보구분료불동성시방개포말적류형。연구표명：진관은건형예기대방개포말존재현저억제효응，단풍험형예기적방대효응재방개포말형성중기료주도작용；차외，동부지구성시방개포말주요속우강풍험형예기여강은건형예기형，중서부지구성시방개포말칙주요속우약은건형예기형。
This paper divides the expectations of housing market investors into two categories of ro-bust expectations and risky expectations, and measures the impacts of heterogeneous expectations on the formation of housing price bubbles when the investors can alter their expectations according to the market dynamics based on the evolutionary finance methods. Furthermore, we identify the types of different cities＇ housing price bubbles and find risky expectations play dominant roles in the formation of housing price bubbles while the impacts of robust expectations are also significant and the main housing price bubbles type of east region cities is strong risky expectations and strong robust expectations while middle and west region cities is weaken robust expectations.