CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于财政调整时期的内生划分方法，采用STR模型对于我国1980—2012年间财政政策非线性效应的实现机制与动态特征进行实证分析，结果发现：一是我国财政政策非线性效应主要是经由消费渠道发生，而且是通过影响消费者预期产生。二是财政政策非凯恩斯效应在不同条件下与财政政策工具之间的搭配组合存在一定差异。其中，当基本预算余额／潜在GDP小于临界值0．0450时，财政收入对居民消费需求存在非凯恩斯效应；反之，财政支出表现出一定程度的非凯恩斯效应。三是财政政策调整的幅度是居民消费需求非凯恩斯效应产生的重要因素，但财政政策调整的组成成分与政府的初始债务规模不是非凯恩斯效应产生的先决条件。本文研究结论不仅可以为政府制定财政政策提供理论依据与决策参考，还有助于改善我国财政政策实践的操作效率和运行效果。
본문기우재정조정시기적내생화분방법，채용STR모형대우아국1980—2012년간재정정책비선성효응적실현궤제여동태특정진행실증분석，결과발현：일시아국재정정책비선성효응주요시경유소비거도발생，이차시통과영향소비자예기산생。이시재정정책비개은사효응재불동조건하여재정정책공구지간적탑배조합존재일정차이。기중，당기본예산여액／잠재GDP소우림계치0．0450시，재정수입대거민소비수구존재비개은사효응；반지，재정지출표현출일정정도적비개은사효응。삼시재정정책조정적폭도시거민소비수구비개은사효응산생적중요인소，단재정정책조정적조성성분여정부적초시채무규모불시비개은사효응산생적선결조건。본문연구결론불부가이위정부제정재정정책제공이론의거여결책삼고，환유조우개선아국재정정책실천적조작효솔화운행효과。
Based on endogenous classification method in fiscal adjustment period, this paper used smooth transition regression models to study implementation mechanisms and dynamic characteristics of fiscal policy in 1980—2012. It came to the following conclusions. Firstly, the non-linear effect of fiscal policy changed through consumption channel and influenced the consumer expectations. Secondly, the combinations of no-Keynesian effect of fiscal policy under different conditions and the fiscal policy tools were certain differences. When the primary budget surplus/GDP was less than the critical value of —0. 045 0, fis- cal revenue had non-Keynesian effects on consumer demand. On the contrary, when the primary budget surplus/GDP was greater than the critical value of —0. 045 0, fiscal expenditure on consumer demand had non-Keynesian effects to some extent. In addition, the government＇s initial sizes of the debt and the magni- tude of the fiscal adjustments were not important factors to the non-linear effects of fiscal policy in our country. This paper provided the theoretical basis and decision reference for the government, and improved operational efficiency and operational effectiveness of fiscal policy in China.