CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用面板数据的相关理论和模型建立起煤炭需求与经济发展的库兹涅茨曲线模型，并将工业化和城市化两个重要因素引入模型中，以对中国工业化和城市化进程中的煤炭库兹涅茨曲线进行研究。回归结果表明，中国工业化、城市化进程推动了煤炭需求快速增长，其中工业化对中国煤炭需求的作用远大于城市化，意味着中国工业化水平的加快是引起煤炭消费增长的主要原因，城市化水平则次之。煤炭消费量随着人均GDP的增长，先增加后减少，说明我国煤炭需求与经济增长之间的库兹涅茨特征明显，能源库兹涅茨的“倒U型”曲线假说在中国成立。模型显示，煤炭需求下降的理论拐点在2040年左右。考虑到各项制约因素的作用，中国煤炭年需求量和产量实际上已经达到增长的极限，因此，应采取各种有效的调控措施，严格控制煤炭需求量的上升，促使库兹涅茨曲线拐点提前到来。
본문이용면판수거적상관이론화모형건립기매탄수구여경제발전적고자열자곡선모형，병장공업화화성시화량개중요인소인입모형중，이대중국공업화화성시화진정중적매탄고자열자곡선진행연구。회귀결과표명，중국공업화、성시화진정추동료매탄수구쾌속증장，기중공업화대중국매탄수구적작용원대우성시화，의미착중국공업화수평적가쾌시인기매탄소비증장적주요원인，성시화수평칙차지。매탄소비량수착인균GDP적증장，선증가후감소，설명아국매탄수구여경제증장지간적고자열자특정명현，능원고자열자적“도U형”곡선가설재중국성립。모형현시，매탄수구하강적이론괴점재2040년좌우。고필도각항제약인소적작용，중국매탄년수구량화산량실제상이경체도증장적겁한，인차，응채취각충유효적조공조시，엄격공제매탄수구량적상승，촉사고자열자곡선괴점제전도래。
This paper used panel data to establish a Kuznets model between coal demand and economic growth with two factors of industrialization and urbanization. The regression results showed that the indus- trialization and urbanization of China resulted in the fast growth of coal demand and the role of industriali- zation was greater than that of urbanization. The process of industrialization was the main reason for the growth of coal consumption. Moreover, per capita GDP growth brought an initial phase of coal consump- tion growth followed by a subsequent phase of coal consumption decline. It fitted a characteristic of Kuznets between coal demand and economics growth, which would be an inverted U-shaped curve in Chi- na. The model also showed the turning point of coal demand would appear in 2040. However, both coal de- mand and production had their growth limits. The government should adopt some effective measures to control the growth of coal demand, promote the turning point to come ahead of time.